| Nikells said: A) Perhaps I'm mistaken but I assumed the game does not have a specific number of rounds and ends when either B) I can see the logic in this: I don't see how probably killing a townie now is going to change this situation though? |
A) Correct on your assumptions. It is just hard to think about how the game plays out over the course of several days. I have it written down on paper in front of me at my computer so I can see it instead of just think about it.
What you said before was: "If we lynch townies for the mafia this is effectively shortening the number of rounds we have in total."
Here is the reason that is not true. Say we lynch everyday and there is one kill every night. It will always take 4 mis-lynches to end the game with a mafia win. Whether that 4th mis-lynch takes place Day 4, 5, or 6, it is still always the 4th mis-lynch. So the town can lynch three townies and still win on the last possible day. Of course, the more mis-lynches there are, the town's margin for error shrinks. It is sort of like the town gets 3 free misses. The 4th strike is game over.
Let's say we no lynch Day One. That is followed by one lynch everyday, and a kill every night. In that case, we might only get 3 mis-lynches before the game ends. Let's say we mis-lynch 3 times in a row. Night 4 would start with 7 people. If the mafia get a kill, we never get a fourth chance. In the above paragraph, Night 3 starts with 8 people, so the mafia can't end the game and the town gets a 4th shot no matter what. So with a no lynch Day One, the town gets only 2 free misses. If the town misses a 3rd time, then the mafia get a shot at ending the game during the night before the town gets a chance at a 4th lynch.
So yes, the mafia has to make an extra kill during the night, but the town has less room for error during the available days.
Getting into what Final-Fan and I were talking about, missed night kills or extra night kills change this dynamic. In the lynch everyday scenario, a single miss or extra kill sends us into the endgame of the Day One no lynch. However, we can then decide to no lynch to put us back into the favorable first scenario.
B) Let's say that we no lynch on Day One and come to that situation in the late game where it would be beneficial to no lynch again. What that means is that had we lynched Day One instead, we would have naturally come to the good scenario. We would not have to no lynch at all, instead of no lynch twice. The no lynches end up giving the mafia an extra kill, and removing a lynch from the town.
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