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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 16 - Brawlsville

theRepublic on 23 April 2010
Words Of Wisdom said:

Vote Spread (Beta)

dsister44:     TruckOSaurus > supermario128 > No Lynch
trangentspree:
KingFate: No Lynch
Nikells:
supermario128: Falcon095
stefl1504:     Falcon095
SciFiBoy:
dtewi:
TruckOSaurus:  dsister44
SuperAdriank:
theRepublic:   Falcon095
Falcon095:
Final-Fan:     dsister44 > > No Lynch

LOVE IT!

That would have saved me a ton of work in that huge game I kept track of that stuff.



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Final-Fan on 23 April 2010

Mass roleclaims are cool. It's like ... when a movie goes from suspense to thriller OSHIT IT WAS THE BIRDS WE HAVE TO ESCAPE (bad example but you know).

It does change the flow of the game, but not necessarily for the worse IMO. From then on the mafia get much more discretion in their kills which helps them. But the town has a ton of info, and the mafia have to fake their roles, which both help the town.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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dsister44 on 23 April 2010
Final-Fan said:
Mass roleclaims are cool. It's like ... when a movie goes from suspense to thriller OSHIT IT WAS THE BIRDS WE HAVE TO ESCAPE (bad example but you know).

It does change the flow of the game, but not necessarily for the worse IMO. From then on the mafia get much more discretion in their kills which helps them. But the town has a ton of info, and the mafia have to fake their roles, which both help the town.

yeah, I remember last game... the role claims nearly gave me a heart attack. >_<

 

But this game roleclaims would be a horrible idea imo. All the townies will say their real role. Whereas the mafia will lie about their roles and keep them. Leaving the town with 0 powers and the mafia with all of theirs. 

 



Final-Fan on 23 April 2010
dsister44 said:
Final-Fan said:
Mass roleclaims are cool. It's like ... when a movie goes from suspense to thriller OSHIT IT WAS THE BIRDS WE HAVE TO ESCAPE (bad example but you know).

It does change the flow of the game, but not necessarily for the worse IMO. From then on the mafia get much more discretion in their kills which helps them. But the town has a ton of info, and the mafia have to fake their roles, which both help the town.

yeah, I remember last game... the role claims nearly gave me a heart attack. >_<

But this game roleclaims would be a horrible idea imo. All the townies will say their real role. Whereas the mafia will lie about their roles and keep them. Leaving the town with 0 powers and the mafia with all of theirs. 

Well, duh. 
But yeah, just in case anyone was thinking about it THIS game ... no. 
No.  



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

TruckOSaurus on 23 April 2010
theRepublic said:
TruckOSaurus said:
I really don't agree with theRepublic's stats based reasons for lynching someone on the first day. I believe we should only lynch someone if we have a good reason to, not because voting no lynch "removes a town kill", a town myslynch is worst than a mafia kill.

A town mis-lynch is worse than a mafia kill?  You're going to have to explain that one.  I'm really interested.

My take:

Let me preface this by saying that mis-lynches are bad, bad things to be avoided.  However, I'll take one any day of the week over a mafia kill.

When trying to lynch someone, we at least have a chance of getting mafia.  A mafia kill has zero chance of getting mafia, unless we have multiple mafia factions (unlikely in this game).

We also have a public record of the mis-lynch.  We know who supported it, who was against it, who barely commented on it.  All that information can be used later in the game.  A mafia kill is done in secret.  We don't know the reasoning, and it can be difficult to parse.  It could be the murdered person was on the right track, it could be to make someone else look guilty, it could be to get rid of a historically strong player, it could be to get rid of someone the town thinks is innocent, it could be to get rid of a talkative player, it could be that the mafia thought that player had a strong power role, etc.

That is why I prefer the town maintain all the killing power it can.

I was getting worried nobody would ask me to clarify that statement.

First of all, my statement was aimed at Day One mislynches, especially a Day One like the one we're experiencing in the current game. Nobody has made a slip up like SM128 in the previous game, nobody has said anything overly suspicious, so us lynching someone is basically playing russian roulette with 10 out of 13 chances of killing one of our own.

Then Day Two arrives and we've got nothing to go on because we lynched a random townie just for the sake of it.



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theRepublic on 23 April 2010
Final-Fan said:
Mass roleclaims are cool. It's like ... when a movie goes from suspense to thriller OSHIT IT WAS THE BIRDS WE HAVE TO ESCAPE (bad example but you know).

It does change the flow of the game, but not necessarily for the worse IMO. From then on the mafia get much more discretion in their kills which helps them. But the town has a ton of info, and the mafia have to fake their roles, which both help the town.

I'm not really saying it hurts the game from the perspective of the mafia or town or anything like that.  I just sort of have a personal dislike for the concept.  It's kind of hard to explain.  I guess it just really bothers me when it starts happening too early, or with little cause.  Late game it doesn't really bother me.



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theRepublic on 23 April 2010
TruckOSaurus said:

I was getting worried nobody would ask me to clarify that statement.

First of all, my statement was aimed at Day One mislynches, especially a Day One like the one we're experiencing in the current game. Nobody has made a slip up like SM128 in the previous game, nobody has said anything overly suspicious, so us lynching someone is basically playing russian roulette with 10 out of 13 chances of killing one of our own.

Then Day Two arrives and we've got nothing to go on because we lynched a random townie just for the sake of it.

Then Day Two arrives and we've got nothing to go on?  We would have more than if we no lynched.  There would be tons to go back and look at in the event of a lynch.  It is the no lynches that result in little to look at.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
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Nikells on 23 April 2010
theRepublic said:

Nikells said:
A) If we lynch townies for the mafia this is effectively shortening the number of rounds we have in total.

B) My opinion also differs on your "saving a no lynch for a later round" strategy. We're at no point in future rounds going to have less information on who to lynch than we do now.

(Lettered to respond to your points.)

A) Not true.  For a game starting with 13 players and assuming 3 mafia, we can mis-lynch three times and still make it to the maximum number of days.  It is only that fourth mis-lynch that ends the game early.

Also notice that chart I posted back on Page 1 (@100 posts per).  A no lynch does not by the town an extra day, it buys an extra night.  It only pushes back the end game by half a day cycle.

B) A tactical no lynch later in the game could be very beneficial to the town.  Scenario: 4 players left, which means only 1 mafia left.  One mis-lynch ends the game unless there is some luck during the night, assuming the town even has the right roles still alive.  Otherwise it is just game over.  A better situation is 3 players left, 1 mafia.  A no lynch gets you there, or a no lynch a day or two earlier in anticipation.  I would always prefer the endgame to occur during the day phase.

A) Perhaps I'm mistaken but I assumed the game does not have a specific number of rounds and ends when either
 - The mafia outnumber or equal the townies.
- The town lynch all the mafia.

If we lynch a townie today (and three out of four times we're going to do that) that means its one less night kill the mafia have to make to end the game. Am I wrong about this?

B) I can see the logic in this: I don't see how probably killing a townie now is going to change this situation though?

Ideally we should attempt to lynch a mafia today but without any evidence and the odds stacked against that if we do it at random it seems a bad idea. I'm still not sold on your plan at all.

theRepublic said:
At this point I'm starting to feel like I have distracted the town from its true goal, scumhunting. Not that much scumhunting usually takes place Day One. However, some of the logic I have seen does not make any sense, so I'm going to address it.

Not at all. While I don't agree with your plan I'm glad you brought it up as its getting people to talk about the game.
I was going to FOS you initially: but it seems unlikely a mafia member would be so vocal this early on when they have a nice big crowd to hide in.

Also:
What are your thoughts so far on this dsister? I've noticed that in the last few games you've got this eerily accurate natural perception when it comes to forum mafia.



Final-Fan on 23 April 2010

Fair enough. I'd also be annoyed if it happened on Day 1
"Hey I'm bored, this day is going nowhere, let's all roleclaim."
"OKAY! YAAY roleclaimz!"



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

TruckOSaurus on 23 April 2010
theRepublic said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I was getting worried nobody would ask me to clarify that statement.

First of all, my statement was aimed at Day One mislynches, especially a Day One like the one we're experiencing in the current game. Nobody has made a slip up like SM128 in the previous game, nobody has said anything overly suspicious, so us lynching someone is basically playing russian roulette with 10 out of 13 chances of killing one of our own.

Then Day Two arrives and we've got nothing to go on because we lynched a random townie just for the sake of it.

Then Day Two arrives and we've got nothing to go on?  We would have more than if we no lynched.  There would be tons to go back and look at in the event of a lynch.  It is the no lynches that result in little to look at.

I agree we would have more with a myslynch, one more dead townie that is.

Anyone who voted for the myslynched would have an easy excuse since nobody has anything to base their votes on today. Everyone of the voters would be guilty of voting without any good reason.



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