Microsoft has always released their biggest exclusive of the year in the September-November period so it's really surprising to hear that Gears of War 3 is coming out April 2011.  Since the only exclusive series they have that's bigger than Gears is Halo and we know that is coming this year it has to make one wonder what they have up their sleeve for Fall/Winter 2011.

So let the speculation begin... 

Here are some possibilities that I can think of and the chances that I think they might happen:

- Modern Warfare 3 timed exclusive - Even though it would only be a timed exclusive it would still be a massive announcement.  There is some precedent for it since the latest map pack for MW2 is a timed exclusive but it's hard to imagine Activision being willing to do this for a main installment in the biggest HD game series.  Still though Microsoft might be able to hammer out a deal for a 1 or 2 month delay for the PS3 and PC versions of the game since Activision would still be able to have them out for X'mas 2011.

- Xbox 360 successor - Some can argue about how large a hit the Xbox brand took with the RROD problem that plagued launch Xbox 360s and even ones released years afterwards but one thing that isn't up for debate is that the one year head start really paid off for Microsoft in terms of getting a leg up on their main competitor at the time.  Since Sony is in no rush to release a successor to the PS3 and Nintendo is likely content to enjoy the Wii's success for the forseeable future Microsoft may not feel rushed to release their next console anytime soon.  Also releasing Project Natal this year and releasing a new console next year wouldn't really make much sense so this possibility is probably very unlikely to happen.

- Major new exclusive IP - We know that Agent is in development for PS3 and considering Rockstar's long development times and release date unreliability it's hard to imagine Microsoft having something secret in the works with them that could be out by X'mas 2011.  Activision seems content with multiplatform game releases so it's unlikely they would be willing to make a major series 360 exclusive.  Then there's EA but they haven't been having the greatest of success with establishing massive non-sports HD franchises so that leaves very few third party possibilities for such a game.  Of course maybe Epic has something else up their sleeve that has Microsoft excited but Epic releasing two massive Xbox 360 exclusive games in one year would be extremely surprising and likely result in Epic having two games cannibalizing each other's sales.  So it's possible it's a new IP but hard to imagine who's making it.

Anyways I just wanted to see what everyone else thinks might be up with Gears of War 3's April release and what it might mean.

Doubt we'll get an Xbox 360 successor in late 2011. Who knows, maybe they'll gobble up the fired IW heads and form a new studio for them.

yeah i've kinda been wondering the same thing. If Gears 3 is earlier in the year and there's no new Halo for 2011, then what will be the huge game for the holidays? My best guess would be perhaps Bungie's new IP or maybe even Half Life Episode 3?

Halo 4

Perfect Dark 2, Banjo Kazooie threeie, Milo...Natal Games

A Halo game 1 year after Reach?!

That would make sense if Activision owned the Halo IP. But Microsoft? Think again.

@matt: Perfect Dark and Banjo are not as big as Gears of War. Milo, who knows how big it'll take off. New properties depend on legs.

@Legend: Keep in mind also, new properties depend on legs more than FW sales.

Microsoft's strategy this gen seemed to be about releasing already accomplished franchises in the holiday season.

I don't believe a successor may come in 2011, despite ow 360 sales by that time, I think its way to soon for a new console.

I hope for Banjo Threeie

It's going to be an epic game. But, who knows...

it's probably going to be a game I don't like very much - shooter, blood and grey.

I think MS probably believes Halo will carry over well enough, in addition to Natal and strong multiplat offerings. But who know, E3 may reveal a big suprise.

Xbox 3 launch with Halo 4 or whatever 343 call it.

6 years is plenty of time for any console before it's replaced. Microsoft likes the head starts. Hell DS is the most successful platform ever, but even Nintendo knows when it's time. If 3DS is late 2010 -March 2011 then a next gen system at the end of 2011 is dead on schedule.