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Forums - Sales - BHR-3 keeps badgering me... so... when could PS3 overtake 360?

Rickz0r on 07 April 2010
Squilliam said:
Seihyouken said:
nightsurge said:
MikeB said:
The XBox 360 shipped 38.7 million units by the end of 2009.
The PS3 sold to retail 33.5 million units by the end of 2009.

That's a 5.2 million gap.

The XBox 360 shipped 600K less units in 2009 than in 2008, if XBox 360 sales drop again by 600K in 2010 and the PS3 slim is able to achieve 15 million sales for 2010 as expected by many the PS3 will have overtaken the XBox 360 by the end of this year by a few hundred thousand units.

Lol, 360 drop by 600k again, even when this year it will have a slim, price drop, and console rebranding (and Natal)?  Not gonna happen.

PS3 15 million this year with no price drop, slim, or console rebranding this time (only Move this year)?  Not gonna happen.

An awful lot of assumptions you have there.

1. There's no guarantee that the slim will launch this year.
2. There's no guarantee that the 360 will have a price drop, especially if Microsoft plans to bundle Natal with every console.
3. There's no guarantee that Natal will move a significant amount of consoles.
4. There's no guarantee that PS3 won't have a price drop.

Also, I'd like to point out that I believe comparing the console moving potential of Halo: Reach vs. Gran Turismo 5 is silly. Halo has already had Halo 3, Halo Wars, and Halo 3: ODST all released on the 360, there really isn't a Halo fan that doesn't already own a 360. PS3 has Prologue, but there are millions of Gran Turismo fans that are waiting for Gran Turismo 5 before picking up PS3s.

1. Nope, but it is pretty likely.

2. Its extremely possible, even if they bundle Natal as the Primesense article indicates its not as expensive as previously thought. It all depends on how they approach the relaunch and if they consider taking losses on hardware in the short-term to be a worthwhile position to take.

3. Of course not, however the Xbox 360 had a noticeable spike in console sales the week after E3 last year.

4. Sony will like to be profitable at some point. Cutting the price again will likely keep the SCE division closer to the red than they would like. Shareholders can only take so much and at some point Sony would like a payback for their investment.

Those are still assumptions.. @Last bolded. So it's not likely for Sony to price cut, since they want to stay profitable. But it's extremely possible for Microsoft to: 

- Launch a Slim

-Bundle Natal with every Console

- Cut the price of the consoles

That's going to cost Microsoft an awfull lot of money, and then they're likely to make a loss per console sold. Since Microsoft is just a company like Sony, they'll be willing to stay profitable aswell.



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nightsurge on 07 April 2010
Rickz0r said:
nightsurge said:
MikeB said:
@ nightsurge

Is a XBox 360 slim already confirmed?

I think Playstation Move and Gran Turismo 5 may have a positive impact this year.

Its as confirmed as the PS3 Slim was this time last year.  Everyone thought those pics and videos were fake only to be proven real.  Now the 360 slim has even more reliable evidence than the PS3 Slim did so yes I believe it is a certainty.

As for PS Move and GT5, those will be countered by Natal and Halo: Reach.  But as I said, MS will be the one with more momentum driving changes this year so you will see it likely sell a few million more than any year so far and the PS3 will sell 13 million or less.

@Bolded. So it's a fact that MS will have more momentum driving this year? Wouldn't be so sure about that.. Also, you're saying that MS will sell 13 Million + (2 Millions higher then the 360 ever sold in a year) ? That's what the Ps3 did last year. And the 360 is off to a bad start: Since the Slim the 360 is being beaten almost every week. You really think Natal is going to change that all? Stay realistisc, with only natal and some, without a doubt, great games to support it, Microsoft isn't going to sell 13 million. 

That's why I said Natal + Price Cut + 360 Slim + Console "relaunch"/rebranding is what will drive momentum.  If you really think the momentum won't shift I suggest you look back at 2007, 2008, and 2009.



nightsurge on 07 April 2010
Rickz0r said:
Squilliam said:
Seihyouken said:
nightsurge said:
MikeB said:
The XBox 360 shipped 38.7 million units by the end of 2009.
The PS3 sold to retail 33.5 million units by the end of 2009.

That's a 5.2 million gap.

The XBox 360 shipped 600K less units in 2009 than in 2008, if XBox 360 sales drop again by 600K in 2010 and the PS3 slim is able to achieve 15 million sales for 2010 as expected by many the PS3 will have overtaken the XBox 360 by the end of this year by a few hundred thousand units.

Lol, 360 drop by 600k again, even when this year it will have a slim, price drop, and console rebranding (and Natal)?  Not gonna happen.

PS3 15 million this year with no price drop, slim, or console rebranding this time (only Move this year)?  Not gonna happen.

An awful lot of assumptions you have there.

1. There's no guarantee that the slim will launch this year.
2. There's no guarantee that the 360 will have a price drop, especially if Microsoft plans to bundle Natal with every console.
3. There's no guarantee that Natal will move a significant amount of consoles.
4. There's no guarantee that PS3 won't have a price drop.

Also, I'd like to point out that I believe comparing the console moving potential of Halo: Reach vs. Gran Turismo 5 is silly. Halo has already had Halo 3, Halo Wars, and Halo 3: ODST all released on the 360, there really isn't a Halo fan that doesn't already own a 360. PS3 has Prologue, but there are millions of Gran Turismo fans that are waiting for Gran Turismo 5 before picking up PS3s.

1. Nope, but it is pretty likely.

2. Its extremely possible, even if they bundle Natal as the Primesense article indicates its not as expensive as previously thought. It all depends on how they approach the relaunch and if they consider taking losses on hardware in the short-term to be a worthwhile position to take.

3. Of course not, however the Xbox 360 had a noticeable spike in console sales the week after E3 last year.

4. Sony will like to be profitable at some point. Cutting the price again will likely keep the SCE division closer to the red than they would like. Shareholders can only take so much and at some point Sony would like a payback for their investment.

Those are still assumptions.. @Last bolded. So it's not likely for Sony to price cut, since they want to stay profitable. But it's extremely possible for Microsoft to: 

- Launch a Slim

-Bundle Natal with every Console

- Cut the price of the consoles

That's going to cost Microsoft an awfull lot of money, and then they're likely to make a loss per console sold. Since Microsoft is just a company like Sony, they'll be willing to stay profitable aswell.

They haven't cut the price in nearly 2 years come this September.  That combined with the Slim remodel and the combination Cpu/Gpu will save MS oodles of money and will be how they can afford to cut the price and bundle Natal without taking a loss.



sergiodaly on 07 April 2010

the actual gap is in 5.5 mil right? i expect to PS3 to sell 15 mil between march 2010 to march 2011 and xbox360 to sell 10 mil in the same time ... so june 2011 sounds about right but i will give microsoft the benefit of doubt in terms of ways to boost hw sales (natal and other halo game) and i am giving the final prediction for the last week of october 2011...

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ethomaz on 07 April 2010

When is the financial results out? Q3 for Microsoft and Fiscal Year for Sony and Nintendo.



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Squilliam on 07 April 2010
Rickz0r said:
Squilliam said:

1. Nope, but it is pretty likely.

2. Its extremely possible, even if they bundle Natal as the Primesense article indicates its not as expensive as previously thought. It all depends on how they approach the relaunch and if they consider taking losses on hardware in the short-term to be a worthwhile position to take.

3. Of course not, however the Xbox 360 had a noticeable spike in console sales the week after E3 last year.

4. Sony will like to be profitable at some point. Cutting the price again will likely keep the SCE division closer to the red than they would like. Shareholders can only take so much and at some point Sony would like a payback for their investment.

Those are still assumptions.. @Last bolded. So it's not likely for Sony to price cut, since they want to stay profitable. But it's extremely possible for Microsoft to: 

- Launch a Slim

-Bundle Natal with every Console

- Cut the price of the consoles

That's going to cost Microsoft an awfull lot of money, and then they're likely to make a loss per console sold. Since Microsoft is just a company like Sony, they'll be willing to stay profitable aswell.

There are some very good reasons for this.

1. Microsoft is talking about Natal as a product 'relaunch'

2. Microsoft is talking about Natals long term prospects so the initial launch is very important.

3. Microsofts market position is very different to Sony's. They make more money per year per console than Sony does. If this doesn't justify taking a small loss on the console hardware im not sure what would. This is especially true as Natal is also relevant to their OS business and they certainly will want to drive the cost of the interface downwards in order to make it a relevant interface for both the console and the PC.

4. If Windows Mobile 7 is able to break even then the overall profitability of the EDD will be significantly improved. Its not the Xbox, its Windows Mobile 6 which is dragging the division down, so if that at least breaks even then Microsoft will have the freedom to cut the price without tanking the overall divisions numbers.



Tease.

STEKSTAV on 08 April 2010
leo-j said:
nightsurge said:
leo-j said:
kowenicki said:
leo-j said:
After the stock increase, yes I do


as usual you will be wrong quite soon.

I doubt it

I don't.

k so when the ps3 outsells the 360 this week in the americas, you can come back to this thread and tell me how I was wrong.

Win :)



Ping_ii on 08 April 2010
STEKSTAV said:
leo-j said:
nightsurge said:
leo-j said:
kowenicki said:
leo-j said:
After the stock increase, yes I do


as usual you will be wrong quite soon.

I doubt it

I don't.

k so when the ps3 outsells the 360 this week in the americas, you can come back to this thread and tell me how I was wrong.

Win :)

LOL!! well doubt he's gonna show up now...



Rickz0r on 08 April 2010
STEKSTAV said:
leo-j said:
nightsurge said:
leo-j said:
kowenicki said:
leo-j said:
After the stock increase, yes I do


as usual you will be wrong quite soon.

I doubt it

I don't.

k so when the ps3 outsells the 360 this week in the americas, you can come back to this thread and tell me how I was wrong.

Win :)

360 Fans owned on this one.. The people who doubted that the low Ps3 sales in America were because of shortages got their arsh kicked aswell ^-^



jneul on 08 April 2010

BHR is awesome and you know it, the current rate is 90k per week, PS3 will overtake alot faster than all your predictions as the rate of sales keeps on changing and the demand is higher, lol



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