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Forums - Sales - Analyzing the Analyst: Michael Pachter is Wrong

Demotruk on 15 March 2010
bmmb1 said:
elticker said:
constraints is bullshit nintendo is probably undershipping to raise the prices of how much they sell it to retailers for Or demand is decreasing.

And you say that based on what facts?

Fact 1: Nintendo has lowered at some point last year its expectations for the FY that ends March 2010 and reduced production

Fact 2: Wii had a record breaking month in December 2009, not just by Wii standards but by any standard, selling in the US 3.8 million consoles. The previous record holder was the PS2 around 2004 or so, with 2.8 million. Along with these new consoles, a lot of Wii Fit Plus with balance board and Wii Play were sold.

Combine the two facts (reduced production and totally unanticipated level of sales), and you have reall supply constraints.

Yep, we know that Nintendo reduced production first in the summer of 2009 and again in November of 2009, which was right before sales exploded again (thank you NSMB). There are news reports available from both these time periods.



A game I'm developing with some friends:

www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm

It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.

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chaospluto on 15 March 2010
jarrod said:
chaospluto said:
bmmb1 said:
woopah said:
Demotruk said:

Woopah, Nintendo have reported the above games to be supply constrained. ebay prices for Wii Fit plus are also higher than retail prices again.

I think he's underestimating the relevance of Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter Tri, but that's fine, I can see why someone like Pachter could get blindsided by them.

really? you really think monster hunter tri and red steel 2 can push hardware like god of war 3, GT5 and MOVE can?

I'll give you GOW3, but when exactly will GT5 and Move come out? Say again? So until May, all Sony has is GOW3. Drop off the Rage of the Galdiator argument, but MH3 IS a system seller.

In Japan.

People said the same thing about Final Fantasy and Pokemon once upon a time.  I wouldn't underestimate MH3, if anyone can make it a success, it's Nintendo.  Look at what they've done for Layton.

Final Fantasy and Pokemon have always been pretty big in US.

I played MH on PS2 and loved it, but no one really played it.  MH is also an acquired taste gameplay style and it won't satisfy everyone, it's also hardcore.  At least the PS2 version was, I can't say much for MH3.  

I might get MH3, but only after how I see the online from Wii will be and only if I have friends to play it with :P.  Trust me, MH isn't a game you play by yourself, well you can, but it's not exactly easy.



  • 2010 MUST Haves: WKC, Heavy Rain, GoWIII, Fable III, Mass Effect 2, Bayonetta, Darksiders, FFXIII, Alan Wake, No More Heroes 2, Fragile Dreams: FRotM, Trinity: SoZ, BFBC2.
  • Older Need To Buys: Super Mario Bros. Wii, Mario Kart Wii, Deadspace, Demon's Souls, Uncharted 2.

There is definitely more to list that I want, but that's my main focus there.

jarrod on 16 March 2010
chaospluto said:
jarrod said:
chaospluto said:
bmmb1 said:
woopah said:
Demotruk said:

Woopah, Nintendo have reported the above games to be supply constrained. ebay prices for Wii Fit plus are also higher than retail prices again.

I think he's underestimating the relevance of Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter Tri, but that's fine, I can see why someone like Pachter could get blindsided by them.

really? you really think monster hunter tri and red steel 2 can push hardware like god of war 3, GT5 and MOVE can?

I'll give you GOW3, but when exactly will GT5 and Move come out? Say again? So until May, all Sony has is GOW3. Drop off the Rage of the Galdiator argument, but MH3 IS a system seller.

In Japan.

People said the same thing about Final Fantasy and Pokemon once upon a time.  I wouldn't underestimate MH3, if anyone can make it a success, it's Nintendo.  Look at what they've done for Layton.

Final Fantasy and Pokemon have always been pretty big in US.

Uh... are you new to gaming or something?



chaospluto on 16 March 2010
jarrod said:
chaospluto said:
jarrod said:
chaospluto said:
bmmb1 said:
woopah said:
Demotruk said:

Woopah, Nintendo have reported the above games to be supply constrained. ebay prices for Wii Fit plus are also higher than retail prices again.

I think he's underestimating the relevance of Red Steel 2 and Monster Hunter Tri, but that's fine, I can see why someone like Pachter could get blindsided by them.

really? you really think monster hunter tri and red steel 2 can push hardware like god of war 3, GT5 and MOVE can?

I'll give you GOW3, but when exactly will GT5 and Move come out? Say again? So until May, all Sony has is GOW3. Drop off the Rage of the Galdiator argument, but MH3 IS a system seller.

In Japan.

People said the same thing about Final Fantasy and Pokemon once upon a time.  I wouldn't underestimate MH3, if anyone can make it a success, it's Nintendo.  Look at what they've done for Layton.

Final Fantasy and Pokemon have always been pretty big in US.

Uh... are you new to gaming or something?

Lawl, that's all I can say.  I can say I wasn't a Sales whore back in the day, but trust me I know it was still big.

 

Final Fantasy has always been "pretty" big in US.  

FFIII SNES - 0.87m

FF Tactics PS - 0.95m

FFVII - 3.09m

FFVIII - 2.34m

FFIX - 1.66m

FFX - 2.74m

FFX-2 - 1.82m

FFXII - 1.87m

Pretty damn solid numbers to me, no idea what you're smoking man.

-

Pokemon has also been "pretty" big ever since the Pokemon era.

Pokemon R/G/B - 11.44m

Pokemon G/S - 9.14m

Pokemon R/S - 5.74m

Pokemon F/L - 4.45m

Pokemon Snap - 2.22m

My Bad, these numbers are huge, not big.  So horrible I have no idea how Pokemon survived in the US.

-

Now I will go into the Monster Hunter US.

Monster Hunter Freedom - 0.24m

Monster Hunter Freedom 2 - 0.39m

Monster Hunter Freedom Unite - 0.32m

The rest aren't even tracked, that's how horrible they sold in US.

 

Now, I would LOVE to know where you get your numbers from or who is telling you Final Fantasy and Pokemon haven't been popular.

 



  • 2010 MUST Haves: WKC, Heavy Rain, GoWIII, Fable III, Mass Effect 2, Bayonetta, Darksiders, FFXIII, Alan Wake, No More Heroes 2, Fragile Dreams: FRotM, Trinity: SoZ, BFBC2.
  • Older Need To Buys: Super Mario Bros. Wii, Mario Kart Wii, Deadspace, Demon's Souls, Uncharted 2.

There is definitely more to list that I want, but that's my main focus there.

jarrod on 16 March 2010

Tactics came out after FFVII btw. And FFI-II weren't near big, Nintendo even started giving FFI away with Nintendo Power subscriptions at one point to clear stock (they did this with DW1 as well). The point with FF is that the series didn't hit it "big" until FFVII, before that JRPGs in general were considered too slow, too difficult and too complex (sound familiar?) to be anything but niche in the west. FFVII really changed the game, not just for FF but the genre at large.

Pokemon was more a hit out the gates, but was also a game carefully handled by Nintendo (sound familiar?), and one that critics predicted failure for beforehand. Nintendo did the same thing later on with Brain-Age, another game that pundits said was "unsellable" at a conceptual level in the west.

Also for reference, the only MoHun not tracked here is the PS2 original. Likely because it predates much of VGC's actual data tracking and Capcom never gave out shipment figures.



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chaospluto on 16 March 2010
jarrod said:
Tactics came out after FFVII btw. And FFI-II weren't near big, Nintendo even started giving FFI away with Nintendo Power subscriptions at one point to clear stock (they did this with DW1 as well). The point with FF is that the series didn't hit it "big" until FFVII, before that JRPGs in general were considered too slow, too difficult and too complex (sound familiar?) to be anything but niche in the west. FFVII really changed the game, not just for FF but the genre at large.

Pokemon was more a hit out the gates, but was also a game carefully handled by Nintendo (sound familiar?), and one that critics predicted failure for beforehand. Nintendo did the same thing later on with Brain-Age, another game that pundits said was "unsellable" at a conceptual level in the west.

Also for reference, the only MoHun not tracked here is the PS2 original. Likely because it predates much of VGC's actual data tracking and Capcom never gave out shipment figures.

Whatever dude, if MH3 does sale a lot, well then I will take back my "In Japan" comment.  Until then, Pokemon and Final Fantasy have always been big to me and I'm 24 years old.  So of course I wouldn't know much about the sales of FF1 and 2, that was also days when gaming still wasn't big anyways.



  • 2010 MUST Haves: WKC, Heavy Rain, GoWIII, Fable III, Mass Effect 2, Bayonetta, Darksiders, FFXIII, Alan Wake, No More Heroes 2, Fragile Dreams: FRotM, Trinity: SoZ, BFBC2.
  • Older Need To Buys: Super Mario Bros. Wii, Mario Kart Wii, Deadspace, Demon's Souls, Uncharted 2.

There is definitely more to list that I want, but that's my main focus there.

jarrod on 16 March 2010
chaospluto said:
jarrod said:
Tactics came out after FFVII btw. And FFI-II weren't near big, Nintendo even started giving FFI away with Nintendo Power subscriptions at one point to clear stock (they did this with DW1 as well). The point with FF is that the series didn't hit it "big" until FFVII, before that JRPGs in general were considered too slow, too difficult and too complex (sound familiar?) to be anything but niche in the west. FFVII really changed the game, not just for FF but the genre at large.

Pokemon was more a hit out the gates, but was also a game carefully handled by Nintendo (sound familiar?), and one that critics predicted failure for beforehand. Nintendo did the same thing later on with Brain-Age, another game that pundits said was "unsellable" at a conceptual level in the west.

Also for reference, the only MoHun not tracked here is the PS2 original. Likely because it predates much of VGC's actual data tracking and Capcom never gave out shipment figures.

Whatever dude, if MH3 does sale a lot, well then I will take back my "In Japan" comment.  Until then, Pokemon and Final Fantasy have always been big to me and I'm 24 years old.  So of course I wouldn't know much about the sales of FF1 and 2, that was also days when gaming still wasn't big anyways.

Well, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying MH3 is a sure thing.  But it has a decent chance at success, at being a big US seller.  It actually has a lot going for it (impressive visuals, huge ad campaign, controller bundles, Nintendo support, free online co-op, free demo, etc).  Once upon a time Final Fantasy and Pokemon were also considered only big "in Japan", that's all I'm saying.