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Forums - General Discussion - (US) Economic Reality Check

I have always wondered how the US can label itself as the best economical country in the world with a debt at what? 12 trillion? Anyhow, I'm sure any other nation will be able to achieve the same amount if they were just given 12 trillion dollars.



Tag(thx fkusumot) - "Yet again I completely fail to see your point..."

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Rath I think you're exaggerating the inflation issue. Sure, the magnitude of certain comparisons may be affected, but in general I believe even if you adjusted these for inflation they would fundamentally carry the same message. Especially since many of the graphs are showing unprecedented situations within their time frames. I even posted the calculation for one of the graphs proving that inflation doesn't even come close to explaining the apparent troubles. A similar calculation can be done on the other graphs.

As for your claim that these graphs were "designed to mislead", note that the source of the data (and the graphs themselves) is the Federal Reserve, not any blogger...

You can generate the graphs yourself here:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

As for your GDP graph, note that GDP includes government spending... which is what exploded to unsustainable levels in order to keep GDP figures positive.

 



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vlad321 said:
I have always wondered how the US can label itself as the best economical country in the world with a debt at what? 12 trillion? Anyhow, I'm sure any other nation will be able to achieve the same amount if they were just given 12 trillion dollars.

To be fair, much of our economic growth which earned us the 'best economical country in the world' was prior to the horrible policies that are taking place in congress. Our insane spending only began in the 80's. We were a powerhouse well before then.

But you are correct in saying that having the kind of debt we do could let many countries achieve great gains. That is why many of us are aggrivated by the social policies they are trying to make: We don't have the cash to pay for them.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

@NJ5. I already did note that (see just below the graph) although consumer confidence has also rocketed up which is another indicator of recovery. Also I truly believe I am not exaggerating the inflation issue the worst offender is 2500% out at one point, most of them are at least 1000% out at the earliest point. It's just awful statistics.



Rath said:
@NJ5. I already did note that (see just below the graph) although consumer confidence has also rocketed up which is another indicator of recovery. Also I truly believe I am not exaggerating the inflation issue the worst offender is 2500% out at one point, most of them are at least 1000% out at the earliest point. It's just awful statistics.

Let me put it this way. The first four graphs show a horrible situation in government finances (even accounting for inflation, as I have shown before).

The other graphs show that consumption, exports and imports are crap as well, even if you account for inflation.

Now go ahead and say "awful statistics" again, but that doesn't change the fact that the graphs are valid and portray an accurate (but grim) reality. As Sqrl said, inflation does mitigate some of the observations you might make from the graph, but not all of them, and not the most important ones that I've referenced above.

 



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mrstickball said:
vlad321 said:
I have always wondered how the US can label itself as the best economical country in the world with a debt at what? 12 trillion? Anyhow, I'm sure any other nation will be able to achieve the same amount if they were just given 12 trillion dollars.

To be fair, much of our economic growth which earned us the 'best economical country in the world' was prior to the horrible policies that are taking place in congress. Our insane spending only began in the 80's. We were a powerhouse well before then.

But you are correct in saying that having the kind of debt we do could let many countries achieve great gains. That is why many of us are aggrivated by the social policies they are trying to make: We don't have the cash to pay for them.

Fair enough. Though before the '80s much of the rest of the world was still trying to recover from WWII's destruction and playing catch-up to the US' untouched industries.

To be fair, the debt comes close to like 40k-ish per person in the US currently, elderly and children alike. Meanwhile 45k is the average for a 4 person family in the US currently. I don't think that any significant reduction in the debt will be possible without a significant economic drop or a huge drop in luxury expectations. Meaning all those HDTVs, cars, and other such goods should be far far rearer than they currently are.

 

Edit: A little more thinking about it. It seems that the more "modern" a nation is the more debt it has. The more the populance is used to luxury, or the standard of living, the worse the debt. This is leading me to believe that our economic and monetary theories are extremely obsolete already if these are the costs of modernity/



Tag(thx fkusumot) - "Yet again I completely fail to see your point..."

HD vs Wii, PC vs HD: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=93374

Why Regenerating Health is a crap game mechanic: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3986420

gamrReview's broken review scores: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4170835

 

NJ5 said:
Rath said:
@NJ5. I already did note that (see just below the graph) although consumer confidence has also rocketed up which is another indicator of recovery. Also I truly believe I am not exaggerating the inflation issue the worst offender is 2500% out at one point, most of them are at least 1000% out at the earliest point. It's just awful statistics.

Let me put it this way. The first four graphs show a horrible situation in government finances (even accounting for inflation, as I have shown before).

The other graphs show that consumption, exports and imports are crap as well, even if you account for inflation.

Now go ahead and say "awful statistics" again, but that doesn't change the fact that the graphs are valid and portray an accurate (but grim) reality. As Sqrl said, inflation does mitigate some of the observations you might make from the graph, but not all of them, and not the most important ones that I've referenced above.

 

It exaggerates the important ones, hugely.

 

Take the first graph for example, the dip in the late 1940's goes below zero, due to the stupid nature of the graph it is only about a tenth of the way below zero that it should be. That dip is actually much closer to the -200B mark when you take inflation into account.

 

 

Actually I'm sick of arguing, time for pretty pictures. These are the same graphs as before done in terms of percentage change. See how inflation had a massive influence now?

 

(No other options for TGDEF so couldn't make another graph)

 

 

 

I think these graphs get my point across far better than my words.



On a first observation those graphs may appear to show a different picture... but they still show the same troubles that I've pointed out.



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Yes, they show a severe recession. They don't exaggerate it into some armageddon though.



I honestly think you're both missing the others point and the bigger picture.

In statistics (the "lets get a fair look at the reality" kind of statistics, not the "lets make it say what we want" kind), every graph has meaning so long as the data used to create the graph is legitimate and not abused in analysis, like any tool it has to be used correctly. Or to put it another way, you can't read your speed from a barometer any more than you can read atmospheric pressure from a speedometer, but neither tool is useless unless you are trying to measure the wrong thing with it.

The YOY % Change graphs are great for apples to apples comparisons of this recession to others but many of the graphs in the OP have their own valid point to make as well. Such as those metrics which are now going negative for the first time showing the situations potential for unprecedented changes.

So while the OP's graphs are the wrong tools for making a comparison to the past (and thus why Rath finds them unhelpful) they can still be legitimate tools for NJ's point. That's not to say either is being intellectually dishonest...just that both are making distinct points that require a different look at the data. In effect while one is trying to measure speed, for instance, the other is posting barometer data to make a point about atmospheric pressure.

As a result you each object to the other's graphs on the grounds that it is the wrong way to look at your own analysis, which is true.

In short I think Rath's primary point appears to be that in context with other recessions/depressions this is not yet a wholly unique situation. Meanwhile I think NJ's primary point appears to be that looking deeper at the graphs reveals cause for concern that it could easily become that uniquely awful situation.



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