The only real derailment here seems to be this little side discussion you've started on derailment.  Practice what you preach, I'll continue discussing the success/failure of Japan's consoles.

jarrod, using your 'guesstimation' techniques :P...when all is said and done by the end of this gen (who knows when that´ll be, especially since we don´t know if Arc and Natal will really extend the life of the PS3 and 360...but let´s say end of 2012/2013)...do you see the PS3 and 360 neck and neck when it comes to worldwide sales?

Would you guess both will end this gen around the 60 million mark?

Yeah, I think they'll be close (like within 5m of each other or something, though I'm not sure who'll be on top), and around 60m seems reasonable.  If Natal/Arc totally flop, it may push the next cycle faster though, and may also push down more towards 50m.  If Natal/Arc really take off though, I could also see the opposite track happening, and 70m+ territory.

60m seems like a good safe baseline.

Getting back to Japan, I sort of expect PS3 to top out around 8m, 360 around 2m, and Wii around 15m.  I'd say Wii has bigger bumps in it's future, since it has yet to play the "redesign" card and has DQX to still look forward to.

While I totally agree software is as important as hardware (though it's definitely changing the subject of the thread at this point) one question immediately comes to mind, looking at your charts:

Are you posting the top ten sellers over each console's lifetime in order to demonstrate the overall software sales of each console? I know you're big on sales Jarod, and know a ton of stats. I feel like I've seen you post these lists before, though, and here they seem like a total non-sequitor.


First, because that would be like someone comparing the Wii's current lifetime sales to the PS2's current lifetime sales, and drawing the conclusion that the Wii is selling half as much as the PS2.

And second, because a top ten list belongs in a thread about top selling games, not overall sales (software or hardware). Doesn't it?

Yeah, the 1:1 comparison isn't the best since Wii and PS3 have each only had just over 3 years to sell games, and both have at least a good 2 more (or more) years to go.  Still, I'd say they're both actually comparing very favorably to the previous gen lifetime top tens, which is impressive.

I did top tens because that seems like the easiest data to provide, and gives us at least a window into software.  I'd love if someone has total software figures to compare though (I don't! ;_; )....

I certainly don't either. Would be awesome if someone did (hint hint). It just seems unsatisfying to look at ten games, especially when we all know about the big discrepancy between Nintendo's big first party sellers and Sony's. If fact, I think I've even seen those top ten lists in a post about how good Nintendo is at creating huge hits even on low-selling consoles.

Well, Nintendo dominating their platforms seems like a chicken and egg scenario... what comes first, Nintendo domination or mediocre 3rd party support?  On FC and SFC there at least seemed to be a good mix between the Nintendo stuff and games from Enix, Namco, Hudson, Bandai, Square, Capcom, etc.  Sony certainly has never had the sort of presence Nintendo did even on FC/SFC, but until Sony came in, 1st parties never had such a weak software outing comparably either; Sega, SNK and Hudson also "dominated" their platforms comparably.  Nintendo's wasn't the odd one out, Sony really was (though that's changed too with Microsoft).

I would say N64 at least likely had somewhat of an unfair advantage in regards to it's top ten, due to having so many fewer releases, would could help concentrate sales.  The other platforms all had many, many more games it seems like.

Its called investment. Sony put money into PS3, with hopes that Ps3 sales will eventually break even and potentially create profit. They are currently losing apprx $18 per console, so the break even point is coming pretty soon.

Since PS3 is already using the 'next gen' format, its life-cycle is going to be pretty long- much longer than Xbox and wii. Also unless, Xbox or wii is going to skip a data format generation (or they make their own?), they'll be licencing blu-ray from sony, which means every Xbox720 or wii2 sold, part of that sale will go into Sony's pocket.

Sony will tie for 2nd this generation but they are in much better position to win the next one assuming we're still heading for the bigger resolution and graphics trend.

$18 per console =/= six cents per dollar overall

The $299 SKU in the US loses much more than $18...

its 6cents per dollar.

0.06 * 299 = $17.94 /console