Bah, I'd like to think he's somewhat right, the biggest being how well Natal does. If Natal flops hard, MS will announce a new system next year, and so much for 4 more years.
However, really? A Wii HD? You're still thinking they're'll be one? Give it up, that alone is not happening! And sales of the Wii plumetting like the forecast is also not going to happen. My predictions are that the 360 will be up some (~5-10%) from 2009 by year end, from Natal hype, assuming Natal sees a fall release. However, if it releases late (Nov/Dec), I see 360 about flat, or down as much as 10% if it doesn't launch at all. PS3 will be down a bit (~5%), as hype from the slim dies off, and they compete against launch slim numbers later in the year. I truthfully do not see Arc doing much for sales. Nintendo will be mostly flat (+/- 2%), as I see it picking up some steam this summer from some anticipated games and the release in NA of a black Wii. However, it won't match Dec 09's sales, and that will remove any summer gains made.