Soleron said:
1) My question is, why? It is not an entertaining game in the traditional sense; it emphasises graphics and narrative over the fun/surprise/wonder that successful games usually have; it sells to a niche demographic compared to the 'mass market'. I would have thought The Conduit had more market appeal (as an accessible and intutive FPS game) than this. The Conduit possibly had even more media exposure too, and no big 'mature' Wii games to compete against (whereas the 360 and PS3 have plenty of choice in that area).
2) Why didn't this flop, as Lair did, or any other game which was hyped to death, focused on graphics over content, and essentially was the exact opposite of why Wii and 'casual' games are doing so well?
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1) No, it's not entertaining like many games today are, it's a different experience, but by no means worse. Rarely have I been so engaged in a game, and while your idea of the game relying on its graphics to create appeal is almost blatantly wrong, its presentation is still an important part in making it as immersive and engaging as it is. Finally, Heavy Rain is a critically acclaimed game that has a market segment almost completely to it self (telling a good, mature story and telling it well and in a very engaging way).
2) Heavy Rain wasn't hyped to death, the "hype" that you are seeing now started slowly with the demo releasing, and now that people have been playing the game, the word of mouth is going out fast.
I don't know why you think Heavy Rain has less focus on content than any other game though, because I think the majority of people who played it will say that it has plenty of content.
OT: I always hold back on making actual predictions, but I must say that I almost hadn't dared hope for sales like this!