2012 because that would follow suit with PS2 life before PS3.

2014 to give a couple more years of leeway, since PS3 really does have a long life-cycle.

2014 probably, it still has time

I see very little reason for a new console for a long time. The differances between a 10K computer and a PS3 and 360 are tiny as far as actual gameplay go's. Both the 360 and PS3 are still $300 systems. If new consoles came out before 2014, I think the platform holders should be punished by the law. If they release new consoles any earlier than that, I don't see how 3rd parties are going to survive. They are just now getting to a point of making money, and a new gen by 2012 would mean they have to start going into the red right now for new engines, and tech for the next systems.

At the moment Alan Wake, Halo Reach, Splinter Cell, Heavy Rain, Uncharted 2, God of War 3, and Final Fantasy XIII are proving that this generation is making massive progressions. Until we stop seeing these systems make massive imporovments in tech and gameplay, and start seeing tech that can blow these consoles out of the water, a new system would be pointless anyways.