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Forums - Sales Discussion - Pachter predicts Natal will outsell Arc 5:1 at launch!

Avinash_Tyagi on 22 February 2010

NATAL will probably outsell the arc, but 10 million is extremely unlikely, even if it is bundled with every 360 sold



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Zlejedi on 22 February 2010
Avinash_Tyagi said:
NATAL will probably outsell the arc, but 10 million is extremely unlikely, even if it is bundled with every 360 sold


10 milions is very likely if it's bundled into every X360 SKU sold for a year.

Unless X360 drops to like 6 milions per year :D

Also there might be a lot of natals bough for pc usage (depending on Windows support for it)

 

Of course Sony would only need to bundle Arc into every PS3 to counter it sales wise.

 

But if Natal is bundled and Arc is not then 5:1 is likely.



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Cypher1980 on 22 February 2010

Sony Copy Nintendo and reinvent the Wiimote

MS copy Sony and reinvent the PSeye and call it Natal

Never mind Nintendo. Just remember imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.



Tecmo on 22 February 2010

is there a thread where someone is keeping a list of this guy's predictions and whether they come true or not?

I think this would be beneficial because I would like to see his percentage of wrong and right predictions because he seems to make a lot of improbable predictions



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mike_intellivision on 22 February 2010

Microsoft may have a problem if it bundles Natal with every unit.
Because they would be forcing those who do not want to play a certain way to pay for something that they do not want -- or at least that is how it will be perceived. Because even if the price is not increased, gamers will wonder why there was no decrease in a Natal-less version of the Xbox 360.

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Avinash_Tyagi on 22 February 2010
Zlejedi said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
NATAL will probably outsell the arc, but 10 million is extremely unlikely, even if it is bundled with every 360 sold


10 milions is very likely if it's bundled into every X360 SKU sold for a year.

Unless X360 drops to like 6 milions per year :D

Also there might be a lot of natals bough for pc usage (depending on Windows support for it)

 

Of course Sony would only need to bundle Arc into every PS3 to counter it sales wise.

 

But if Natal is bundled and Arc is not then 5:1 is likely.

360 sales are already dropping off, and MS will find it difficult to attract the downmarket with NATAL, meaning they will be continuing to fight with Sony over the same core market they have been going after for years, as a result, they will not see sales expansion like Nintendo saw with the Wii



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

jarrod on 22 February 2010
09tarheel said:
Is Arc the name of just the Sony remote or the Eye Toy/Remote combo? Because when considering that you only need 1 Natal per system, but some people will want 3-4 Sony Remotes that would really be a big attach rate disparity between the two.

Arc's just the remote.  To be honest, I expect they'll move a similar number of units, but Microsoft will be able to claim a higher installed base die to this (1 Natal per household versus 1-4 Arcs per household).



Darth Tigris on 22 February 2010
AlkamistStar said:
Just going by what i see on tv shows, news stations, and media as a whole - internet, magazines, etc. I think Patcher is right on this one.

Others blew this off, but I won't.  This kind of mass market interest cannot be minimized no matter what people feel about it personally.



Darth Tigris on 22 February 2010
jarrod said:
09tarheel said:
Is Arc the name of just the Sony remote or the Eye Toy/Remote combo? Because when considering that you only need 1 Natal per system, but some people will want 3-4 Sony Remotes that would really be a big attach rate disparity between the two.

Arc's just the remote.  To be honest, I expect they'll move a similar number of units, but Microsoft will be able to claim a higher installed base die to this (1 Natal per household versus 1-4 Arcs per household).

Doesn't that make the value proposition for Project Natal much better to consumers than Arc?  Natal can just recognize multiple players vs having to purchase more remotes for Arc multiplayer is pretty huge.  Especially if (yeah ... if) each Arc controller costs near what a regular controller current costs.



FKNetwork on 22 February 2010
AlkamistStar said:
Just going by what i see on tv shows, news stations, and media as a whole - internet, magazines, etc. I think Patcher is right on this one.

^This