Depends on how its marketed. This could appeal more to TV audiences than your average game. May make some of them decide to finally jump in.

No, I think it will have to be bundled. It will sell some consoles though, but nothing that impressive.

Alan Wake, Splinter Cell: Conviction, Halo: Reach and Natal will help to move a lot of systems this year.

I don't know why but this game reminds me of Silent Hill (the original PS1 version) based on the glimpses I saw from the trailer. I think it was a conservative move from MS to ask the game developer to make this game exclusive; I don't blame them either. I'm thinking they're testing the waters to see how well it does with out a PC release. Most of their games can be bought for the PC and that could be hurting them a bit now that both consoles are in equal footing. I personally love competition so I'm routing for it to sell well.

"there isnt anything like it"? have you played fatal frame or silent hill? those games used flashlights to combat demons/monsters way before alan wake.  those games also had puzzles. matter of fact they even share a similar storyline with a few tweaks of course.

edit: fatal frame also useses cameras to combat monsters. does alan wake do that? no

With hardware penetration at the level it is at already no and I mean no software title left will produce signifigant change to consoles sales. Sure a mild bump may happen because of a title, but nothing major enough to change the hardware sales patterns. Quality software for each console (besides the Wii) keeps the consoles fresh and keeps hardware selling, just doesnt change the pattern. If quality software stopped coming at a regular basis you would see hardware sales drop.

yep, it has !

it is obviously why MS has gone "full 360 exclusiovity"

and also to avoid piracy !

I said no, for me the  true systems sellers are very populars games like GTA, GT, Halo or call of duty. Alan wake or heavy rain are games for "harcore", very small audience...

I voted for thousands since the range is massive; going from 2000-1,999,000.

No, no, a thousand times no.
If the 360 gets any boost that week of AW's release, it will be negligible. You wouldn't be able to tell if it is just a usual fluctuation in sales, or due to Alan Wake.