yes but how many will feel the need to do so right away.

like i stated just look at what the PS2 did.

both the xbox360 and the PS3 once they hit that $99.00 price tag what happen's would people upgrade to the new system's or would these system's be deemed enough

that I think is a big point.

when do you see the next generation system's being released?

2012

2013

so say if they do release a new system in any of  those two year's what will set the new system's apart that would make people jump right away for  upgrade?

software is the big one but here is a problem will there be such a gap in graphic's over these new system's that will be such a leap over these that would be overkill for say the first year these new system's get released, how about the 2nd year?

look how lonng it took for ALAN WAKE, KILLZONE 2..

5 year's

GT

I think Sony and Microsof has asked themselves that very same Q: and the result of that is not very pretty,

an to top it off you will have by that time:

psp

pspGo

DS

DSi

playstation 3

xbox360

nintendo Wii

that right there is 7 system's not including the PC than you are talking about adding 3 more systems on the market and on the shelf space.

how long would the ps3 and xbox360 sell at $99.00?

PS3 will never hit $100, only the arcade has any chance at hitting $100.  Even $150 is probably a stretch.  People never cared about graphics, look at the wii.  Once the exclusive games hit the next gen people upgraded, when Halo 4, Gears 4, Fable 4, Forza 4 hit the new xbox people will upgrade.

It was a risk that they were unwilling to take. Had they taken it they would be unlikely to ever break even with the Xbox 360. It would have also probably torpedoed the Arcade SKU as the read speed for the HD-DVD drives probably weren't that great back in 2005. Its not about whether the system would benefit, of course it would but whether it would be a cost effective benefit that Microsoft would be willing to lay out hard cash for.

If we're talking about 3 years from now in the context of an expected consoles life-cycle from the beginning to end its pretty irrelevant. 3 years from now is 7 years from launch and consoles are expected to 'max out' their hardware capabilities sometime between the fourth and sixth year. So now we're seeing a few games 'max out' the DVD drive which is to be expected. However in the context of the capabilities of a console, it would still be a struggle for most games to effectively make use of the extra space. The system was probably expected to have a replacement this year or next year in 2005 so look at it from that perspective.

The question of what drive for a next generation system really depends on the entire ecosystem of technology they develop and which is available. Its pretty assured that 6* Blu Ray drives will be common enough, perhaps even 8* Blu Ray Drives with effectively 3-4* the overall bandwidth so just from that it makes sense to use the drive even if the space isn't needed overall.

The speed of a processor is not an effective determination of its capabilities. Also just because software can be tweaked it doesn't change the fundamentals of the system in the quantity of texture ram available etc. I also doubt that the system would suffer a drop in support because of the DVD drive as a lot of companies are revamping their content delivery for online networks and they cannot effectively deliver more than a DVD worth of content over the internet.

your sure about that what Time frame we going by 3 year's from now 5 year's from now?

remember the PS3 started out at $500.00 an $600.00 and just hit $299.00

what about 3 year's from now do you realy think in 3 year's that the ps3 or the xbox360 would not be still selling on the shelf if demand is still high?

or do you think in a mere three year's the demand will dry up for the PS3 and xbox360, since remember both natel and ARC bot hit this fall barring delay's, game's from both Playstation 3 and the xbox360 have both had delay's GT and ALAN WAKE what 5 year+ development time

just because a new system get's released does not mean that you kill the current system Esp. if it make's you money.

that I think is the big problem in trying to say this is like every other previous generation In my opinion it's not.

by making online such a strong component for these system's they made also a problem , it make's the consumer less likely to upgrad faster rather than later.

just look at PC's people upgrade PC's are mainly gamer's most people tend to keep their PC longer before they upgrade because in most cases it does what they need it todo.

the GAME CONSOLE'S are going more toward "ENTERTAINMENT PC's" than just strictly just a game console. there is more function's that these boxes do that will drive the consumer to keep then longer rather thun go out and upgrade. not saying everyone will do that but plenty will

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822136373

$35 wholesale

+

~$15-20 drive

Is the reason why the PS3 will never reach $100

The PS3 is arguably not really more powerful than 360, many, most multiplatform games have looked better on 360 so far. FF13 is one of the first instances ever of the reverse in fact.

And I will put Alan Wake's graphics against any PS3 game including Uncharted 2.

The PS3 does have more disc space, of course thats inarguable. It also usually features mandatory installs or longer loading times though, because 2X Blu Ray is slower than 12XD DVD.

Anyways, it's sad how the longest threads around here are always the 360 hating ones. This one is 16 pages and the FF13 sub HD 360 one is 19 pages, and no other threads are even close to as busy. As people rush into these threads to hate the 360.

yup even in 5 years the PS3 won't be $100, of course it wont' matter at all in 5 years anyway.

that's the main problem in context because in this generation the multi-core processor is the main development not single core system's like before, even though the ps2 was multicore it was in no way like the extent of the PS3 or the XBOX360 I have my doubt's in say 3 year's if they would max out these hardware system's for the simple fact that many developer's today right now are just getting the hang of multi=core game development. they have had to change their whole way of developemnt for game console's. now add in NATEL AND ARC into the Mix you have even more thing's that you can do with the system.

as for replacement around this time, I just do not think that was even on Microsoft's radar just look at what game's have been released sofar for the game and how much resources the developer's have already done sofar, look at gear's of war , forza great stunning game's for the xbox360 atre those game's even maxing out the xbox360?

I very much dowbt it

there is 3 core's under that hood each running a 3.2 Ghzm rand and other thing's do play a big part but also how developer's use those resources also matter's.

say for instance

Uncharted 2 look's stunning but the developer's still say's there is plenty of room to improve.

the benefit's of this generation of Multi-core development has a learning curve but also it's leading to some very rich and fantastic game and that has more to do with skill and experience with developemnt of said platform over time.

the next system's will be multi-core from here on out and developer's are still learning..

look at ALAN WAKE as an EXAMPLE

• By Tor Thorsen, GameSpot
• Posted Feb 19, 2010 1:50 am GMT

DICE 2010: Finnish studio's president Matias Myllyrinne discusses the "method behind our madness" during the psychological thriller's half-decade in development.

Has Remedy Entertainment really not shipped a game since October 2003? "Some of your parents may remember our last game, Max Payne 2," joked Matias Myllyrinne, president of the Finnish studio at his DICE Summit session this afternoon. However, with Alan Wake now set for a May 18 release, the designer took the stage to explain why the psychological horror game has taken so long to make. "We'll discuss the method behind our madness," he declared.

First off, Myllyrinne said Alan Wake's long development cycle would not have been possible without the support of Microsoft. The company's backing is "letting us punch above our own weight," said an effusively thankful Myllyrinne. He did not mention that as part of that support, the PC version of the now Xbox 360-exclusive game was put on indefinite hold last year.

Remedy's principles are at the key of its development, and first among these is the core value of "focus." Myllyrinne said that this results in better games. He declared he'd rather ship a game which sells 4 million units every four years than release a game that sells 1 million units every year.

Another key principle is "people" at Remedy, which uses a smaller team than most AAA developers. They focus on multi-talented people from all over the world: One Danish game designer has a background in drama, and a Brazilian level designer has a degree in psychology, which came in handy on Alan Wake.

To get the most out of his smaller staff, Myllyrinne encourages active--sometimes even heated--debate between coworkers, because new ideas can arise from conflict. Remedy has also invested heavily in tools and technology, allowing for maximum worker productivity. As a result, Myllyrinne said only "three or four" members of the core Alan Wake team left during the game's development.

Finally, Remedy has a focus on branding and is very involved with the game's marketing. Myllyrinne said he wants every add to make viewers feel like they're in a thriller.

Wheeling to Alan Wake in particular, Myllyrinne said that they set out to make a scary game, and deliberately modeled the town of Bright Falls after TV's fictional hamlet of Twin Peaks. However, the game's three stages of development--pre-production, production, and the extensive post-production Remedy is known for--ended up taking nearly twice as long as originally planned. Myllyrinne joked this was "taking the long road home."

Luckily, Remedy had enough Max Payne money and Microsoft support to bulk up to cope with the increased demands of current-generation console games. Although still small, the shop has increased payroll by 10-15 percent each year and uses outsourcing and freelancers extensively. As an example, two companies--one in Los Angeles and the other in Germany--are handling the game's sound design.

The character of Alan Wake has evolved as well, going from an outdoorsman of sorts to a tired, more paranoid figure. To make him as realistic as possible--something Myllyrinne feels is key in a thriller--they primarily used many concept photos instead of concept art for his character.

For Alan Wake's enemies, they wanted them to seem "just a bit off." To give the enemies a ghostly edge, they poured water on the concept drawings and let the ink run. The result are the shadowy, blurry figures which can be seen in the game's trailers.

Remedy also decided to reuse some elements from Max Payne 2 for what they call "near-miss moments." When an enemy attacks Alan Wake and nearly hits him, the action slows and then the camera angle changes. A brief demo showed the dramatic effect of these moments, especially when Max Payne pulls a flare out to vanquish a group of enemies in what Myllyrinne called "a Statue of Liberty moment."

All the aforementioned elements were shown together in a demo called the "Harvester of Sorrow," in which Alan Wake is attacked by a possessed grain combine which he must fend off with a flashlight. Once the shadowy driver takes enough damage, the machine disintegrates in a burst of shadow.

Myllyrinne said another big plus on Alan Wake development was the user testing assistance lent by Microsoft. So far, the game's controller scheme has been changed 18 times, and Myllyrinne thinks it will be 20 by the time it ships.

Remedy also gradually phased out the game's heads-up display for greater realism, including dumping a speedometer that appeared during driving sequences. "This isn't Need for Speed, so we didn't really need that."

Alan Wake's world is 10 kilometers by 10 kilometers of fully modeled terrain, based on over 60,000 photos taken in the Pacific Northwest. The Oregon town of Astoria was a particular inspiration, as was the state's Crater Lake National Park.

Unfortunately, Myllyrinne said the decision to make the game an open-world sandbox was a poor one, and had to ultimately be scaled back. The advantage of a more linear story is it allows for better pacing and emotional resonance. It also prevents jarring incongruity that could arise from random events. "When you have a guy show up to a love scene in a monster truck, you know something is wrong," Myllyrinne joked.

To help keep the game's development on track, Remedy would do intense work for five weeks and then every sixth week celebrate and focus on planning for the next phase. "You have to celebrate the small victories," said Myllyrinne in conclusion. When Alan Wake ships exactly three months from now, Remedy will be celebrating a big one.

http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6251528.html

remember that's with Microsoft's help, there is quite a number of Developer's that are just getting used to multi-core development for their software

moreso than in the past it's showing that not many developer's were ready as they would have liked for them to be.

when you go from single to multi-core there is some thing's like you may not have access to like mature API's, or toolset's that take the best advantage of hardware at the Time.

there is still plenty of Room for growth In my Opinion way more than just  3 year's worth,

"The PS3 is arguably not really more powerful than 360,"

it's not arguable because it is..but IS that PS3 hardware vastly better ...NO.. not by a long.

shot does the PS3 have the upper end capabilities..yes it does .

but it remain's in the hands of each and every developer and their experience and skill with each platform.

" many, most multiplatform games have looked better on 360 so far. FF13 is one of the first instances ever of the reverse in fact."

and why do you think that is?

for one many developer's did not get PS3 development kit's or even the most upto date resources kit until way later many not intil late spring early fall of 2007.

than top that with the APi's for the Cell processor was not as mature as they are today.

than add in the fact that most mult-plat form "GAME ENGINE'S" were made for the pc/ xbox360 in mind , due to once agian because of the toll's for the playstaion 3 's SDK was not as robust then as it is now. let alone the developer's having had enough time to gather more experience with development with the PS3 in mind with development of software with the PS3 in mind, only a very few of the developer's had their skill in multi-core software that they could help other's.

Hell take insomniac for instance:

Nathaniel Bell – Senior Environment Artist for Insomniac Games had a chance to sit down and talk with me at the Triangle Game Conference about what it’s like to develop on the Playstation 3 console.  He has as first hand experience developing environments for several Ratchet and Clank games as well as both Resistance titles for the PS3.

The conclusion that he reached was that because of Insomniac’s amazing engineering teams, and since they make all of their own development tools in house, they as a company have been able to learn from their past experiences and develop new tools to improve on them.  This has led to his job becoming increasingly easier over time to the point where “it would be a nightmare to try to develop without the tools we have now”.  In the end, he just came out and said that he has had nothing but great experience developing solely for the PS3 now, and because of the tools that he has at his disposal, “The PS3 is easier to develop for than the PS2″.

This will hopefully lay to rest all of the arguments about how “hard” it is to develop for the Playstation3.  If you put the time and effort into learning the architecture, then amazing games are possible, as is evident from what Insomniac has released.

http://thepowerreview.com/blog/2009/04/29/insomniac-the-ps3-is-easier-to-develop-for-than-the-ps2/

It showed how the experience with the design like the PS2 helped developer's like Insomniac learn how to better debvelop games on the ps3

"2X Blu Ray is slower than 12XD DVD."

in real game development term's I just went over this very same thing it's not as straight forward as you might think..there is more to that than just

the 2x blu-ray is slower than the 12x speed DVD . on average it's not simple for a few thing's overlooked and in the few cases that it may have an effect it is minor due to mainly the type of optical drive that that 12 x speed DVD rom drive is.

I know extra disks costs more, my point was more that the DVD size for 360 is known well up-front, and waiting until well into development (as their quote implies) to make this decision isn't the best approach.  They should have either budgeted assets to remain on 1 DVD, accepted 2 DVDs and worked out their targets accordingly or worked with MS on other incentives.

If the 1 DVD is really becoming limiting, and given the 360 needs those titles to be on the platform more than ever, I actually don't know why the studios don't simply put pressure on MS around their charging scheme for multiple disks.  In truth the power is with the developers here not MS, MS doesn't have enough first party support nor enough install base globally to lay down the law right now.  I'm pretty sure they'd relax such charges if needed to keep the games on the 360.  The developers can also play the card that MS doesn't want the 360 to start appearing as limiting for games - which with Rage, FFXIII and now this is a very real danger.

TBH though my main point remains the same - if you know your goals beforehand it's not great design to break them so badly as implied.  This smacks of someone making a 3.5 hour film when the studio commissoned a 2 hour film.  You either fight the battle right up front and insist the film is going to be 3.5 hours and get it sorted out, or you rework the design to hit the target.

The other option that has just occured to me, but I believe it would break another MS mandate, is to have a mandatory install.  That way the entire game could be compressed on the disk then uncompressed when installed to the 360 HDD.