Ah, finally back. J-charts have been very late, as of late, and I never got around to doing them too late. But now it's up for discussion:

A few notes:

#1. Call of Duty 4 has a massively impressive debut. Not only in the US, but Europe as well. CoD4, for just 1 week, already has 40% of the total sales CoD3 did. Given Call of Duty's track record on the X360 with 2 and 3, expect some good legs. Remember: this is the game that was supposed to be effected by GTA:IV's delay the most, so expect it to easily destroy COD2/3's total grosses. I'd say 3m would be possible worldwide.

#2. Guitar Hero 3 - Despite a massive drop, it's already sold a whopping 1m units. In 2-3 more weeks, GH3 will pass GH2's total LTD on the X360. Very good. We're seeing that the X360 might just be the succuessor to the PS2 in terms of massive software moving. Activision should be happy.

#3. Halo 3 does well. Under 100k already though...Not the most fantastic, but still good. Has a decent chance of hitting 5m by EOY.

#4. Naturo has a decent drop. 50% is good for a decent-opening game. Over Christmas weeks, it should have great legs.

#5. Timeshift - A joke of a game. Might wind up with Shadowrun numbers. Atleast a stupid re-hash FPS title can garner 200k units in the US. Should make them happy if they could plan for profits at 250k units.

#6. Ace Combat 6. It has another decent-sized drop. However, right now, the increased hardware sales are trending to move more 'normal' non-FPS games. AC6 could hit 300-350k by EOY, or more. Should hit 500k in the US before it dies. Could do more if Christmas sales are huge (ie, 30-40k a week).

#7. Half-Life 2: Ah, a decent drop finally! Could hit 1m by the end of it's run (Christmas should allow any game that's doing 20k+ a week now, to manage maybe 200k for the 5 weeks of December).

#8. Scene It? Has a good debut, IMO. Remember, casual games, even on the 360, have great legs. Could do phenominal with the casuals buying a X360 for Guitar Hero, and the Arcade.

#9. NBA 2k8. It has an increase! The holidays are now here, and core/casual games are starting to increase. A quick survey shows that Madden 08, Guitar Hero 2, .Skate, Oblivion, Tiger Woods 08, Viva Pinata, Dead Rising all had good increases (+5%) over last week. A much-needed second life for those games.

A few small notes:

#1. SM5 does....well. Not the best out there, but still very good, because 29k isn't bad for one day of sales. The only sad part is the fact that it's 6.5:1 ratio to the PS3 version. Still in Japan alone, the sales are enough to justify the port. Hopefully Koei realizes that this can work for other games, and puts more games out like this. I would expect sales to be around 25-30k next week....Maybe more.

#2. AC6 has a horrendous drop. Nevertheless, 9k isn't too bad for sales. It could have a decent next week (maybe 5k), and a strong Christmas run. 100k is a minimum expectation, but could hit upto 150k before it dies. It just depends if those that buy Lost Odyssey moves enough hardware to get consumers to buy AC6.

Everything else: Meh. Not really a whole lot to discuss. Just Cause has a decent, but crappy starting. Don't expect much out of it.

The big question is how well Halo 3 can hold: it could do well at Christmas time. Oblivion is doing poorly: 200 units/wk. It should be selling more, as it had great legs for weeks, but then suddenly died. In other news, Blue Dragon and Trusty Bell are having decent boosts from the new hardware.

I'd say the LTD estimates for Japan are way low. At least double them across the board.

Take Halo 3, you say 100K LTD when it's now at 86K. I'll say it will easily pass 100K in January.

I put 100k for Halo as a low end. I'm having withdrawls now that Oblivion won't hit 100k. For a great while, it looked destined to do that, but since it hit 73k, it's been work, and reworked till alot of it's legs fell off.

As for AC6 and SM5 - both predictions are low. If SM5 does 30k next week, it'll just need 20k more to get to my low-end of the LTD.

The closer, more accurate number for it would be 75-125k. It could do great at Christmas, but it seems that VGC X360 numbers are never, ever kind. The only way they work out well is if Media Create shows a X360 in the top-50, and I get ioi to correct it. As was the case for Bladestorm.

If Halo 3 doesn't get at least 350K LTD (my earlier predicition), I'll eat tofu. I was going to say my "hat", but tofu is worse.

I think halo 3 has a really very good leg in japan !
GREAT
maybe it will hit 120 in japan ?!

well if i were u, i'd start buying tofu

...And lots of it.

There is absolutely, positively no way that H3 would hit 350k in Japan. Maybe in Asia (Taiwan + Korea + Japan), since the Koreans go nuts over Halo, but Japan alone? No.

I think you overestimate AC 6 in US and underestimat it in Japan. Also I don't buy those Scene it lifetime numbers.

Great week of sales with COD 4 and GH III. I'm surprised GH II didn't get a boost from GH III.

Can't help but think that if COD 4 had come out further from Halo, it would have done better. Still great, but I expercted 700k.

Great analysis as always.

Hmm, I expected Halo 3 to stabilize around the 100k mark. I wonder if it will continue to fall, that would be disappointing.

I would say the possibility of Halo 3 dropping alot more is very unlikely. It might drop another week, but after Thanksgiving, with Christmas coming around the corner, it will start improving as the last bit of current X360 owners attach to Halo, as well as new consumers want the game.