I agree in regards to North America specifically (which I believe was the primary focus of your post). The ps3 currently has a great image, a great price, great marketing, and a great line up for North America (even if you only look at Uncharted and God of War), and shortages are definitely preventing Sony from truly capitalizing on this potential. Without these shortages, Sony could've possibly come ahead of the 360 even in January, despite Mass Effect 2.

The ps3 was holding steady at 90k per week in NA throughout January, most likely with a consistent sell through of Sony's weekly shipments, but this past week it dipped down to just shy of 80k. Given Sony's comment on the issue, things could get even worse. (Though our numbers may have been a tad high, given the results of NPD - we had ps3 13% higher than NPD for the US.)

The only issue is whether or not potential customers are buying 360s instead of ps3s as a result of these shortages. I doubt that to be the case, especially if it's something like God of War that's propelling people to finally pick up a system.

I do wonder what the ps3's current ceiling in NA would be without supply issues, though. It's possible it'd still be topping 100k weekly, given how bone dry stock is in southern Louisiana.  Of course, the current demand (which is quite high in my area) could simply be pent up demand that'd dissipate fairly quick once supply normalizes.  Let's say the ps3 would normally sell 95k a week, but only gets shipments of 90k per week. By the end of that month, demand would seem incredibly high (20k people looking for ps3s on top of the normal 95k/w!), but would go back down to 95k/w with just one large shipment.

I'm interested in your opinions about library lineup and all, but I think your point of game length is missing the point a little. No matter how much people want to buy a PS3, they might not be able to, because the supply might not be there, according to Sony themselves.

The 360 also has a potentially popular lineup this year, like Mass Effect 2, as you've mentioned, which sold well. People who can't find a PS3 might be tempted to purchase a 360, because they can't find a PS3, and the 360 lineup will probably be compelling.

That PS3 demand was in essence, redirected to the 360, which directly reaped the benefits of Sony's lack of supply. A few hundred units a month, over time, is a significant amount,and while it may not be the megaton that we tend to enjoy discussing, it's worth noting.

Ah good post making, and I think you hit upon a good point, which is that you don't need to be ahead to regain momentum. In fact, the largest momentum changes take place when you are almost out of the game.

As for the question of redirection, again, imho, conditions would be ideal for this to take place, assuming the launch of probably 3 major franchise titles plus Natal in the last half of 2010, along with lack of adequate PS3 supply.

However, for a momentum equilization to occour, imho, it does not require Microsoft's momentum to increase, nor does it require Sony's momentum to decrease. It requires either one or the other, but not both, and the same goes for demand equilization, which I'm now(perhaps incorrectly) directly equating to momentum, as Khuutra pointed out.

I read it, but even still I haven't seen any real evidence that stock shortages for over a year cost the Wii any appreciable momentum and quite frankly if someone waited for 3 years and 3 months to buy the PS3 they can easily wait 3 years and 5 months. At this point, people walking into the store pretty much know what console they want to buy for the most part. Sure there are a few buying for birthdays etc whom will be swayed by a lack of PS3 stock but only on occasion that they go into a store and there are no PS3s to be had. Since the PS3 is still selling that would make up a small proportion of overall sales.

As far as I can tell the consoles are performing about where you'd expect them to be relative to each other. With the influence of Japan dropping and the short term boost from the price cut/slim fading we're just looking at the long term changes in demand which are expected. I stated previously that Sony's PS3 hardware revenue would be about the same as they were before the PS3 cut and that seems to be so.

No, it's not measurable. For that matter, stock shortages(some claimed) may have even HELPED the Wii maintain its momentum and popularity.

However, the PS3 is not even remotely comparable to the Wii in that sense. It is not near the beginning of its lifecycle, it has been readily available for months, and the amount of stock being sold isn't enough to grab the attention of the mass media(no Today show for the PS3).

So again, it certainly isn't measurable, but again, to be practical, it is a fact that you can only sell as much as you can produce, and for the time being, at least, Sony has a limit on how much it can sell each month, as Sony stated, and that's not even taking into account availability and display of units available for sale.

No, I'm not stating a fact. You can't measure momentum. However, it is interesting to speculate(which is a major point of these forums and this website). It nothing else, Sony's response to NPD validates a thread speculating this very point. Does supply have the potential to sway momentum one way or another?

This is somewhat off topic but it has something to do with the argument that Sony rarely capitalizes on momentum. They had a good CES show where they announced lots of 3D tech...

But Samsungs 3D ready TVs are hitting stores in less than 2 weeks.
http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/12/samsungs-3d-hdtvs-arrive-february-26-starting-at-just-under-2/

Sony hasn't even started demong the tech in their stores which they said they will do first... I doubt we will see their models before July.

Just putting it out there :)

the software and features of a console will continue to sell the hardware it will always remain this way, im pretty sure ps3 and 360 will always be very close in sales, also the 360 is 1 year ahead dont forget.

i really cant predict what console will win this war but i do know that sony employs more first party devs than microsoft and nintendo combined so that means more software in the end, also sony has a more reliable and capable motion tech being released this year for the casual and hardcore.

i cant see people going to the store and being bummed out that they couldnt get their ps3 then throwing their 300 bucks at a 360 when in their mind the whole purpose was to spend that 300 on a ps3, i dont know anyone in my entire life that has done something along those lines, if it does happen its a very small insignificant percentage.

this thread is dumb buy both consoles and if the ps3 really is sold out all the time (its not) wait to buy it then

@OP ...they'll come around. March is gonna be a very different story (GOW3 + FF13) and after that it'll be just fine. There's a lot we don't know and that can happen in terms of marketing this year.

@ ZenfolderVGI

From a personal standpoint at the ps3's launch (even though i wanted a wii too) My first system was honestly going to be a ps3, but they were like not there so i ended up getting a 360. I eventually got a ps3 (the 40gig model), but out of real life experience for me your thread definitely makes sense.

I can understand your question but at this point its a little too early to ask about how the supply situation may/may not be effecting momentum. Even 1-3 months down the track with further data we still have no control so no meaningful information can likely come of this question in any case. You can speculate, but isn't that a little too much 'fanboy' for your tastes?