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Forums - Sales - My Analysis of the Ps3 Numbers.

Zucas on 12 February 2010
ioi said:
Can keep this one unlocked for now so people can read my post.

@Rickz0r - it wasn't aimed at you, just the community in general. I wish people would place a little more trust in what we're doing and have the patience and understanding to let us get on and try to do the best job we can rather than have a meltdown everytime a figure gets adjusted.

Well thank you for providing all that stuff.  All very interesting and helpful.  Guess that makes my explanation unnecessary but yea people need to keep their emotions out of this and simply look at them on an empirical standpoint. 



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psrock on 12 February 2010

Sony overshipped somewhere though?

Did they expect to sell more in Europe yet sent less in America?

It's hard to ship 13 million when they have close to 3 million in the stores.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
theprof00 on 12 February 2010

I think the problem that most people are finding is that there are too many consoles in the wild as compared to the sold values reflected industry-wide.

I have several thoughts on what it could be, but I was curious to know if you had any extraordinary reasonings. Care to share your thoughts?

I think it's a stockpiling issue coupled with a distribution problem...



Playingwithfirex on 12 February 2010

With all do respect to VGChartz and their hard working staff. PS3s are out of stock almost everywhere, due to Sony underestimating themselves during the holiday season, how can they be out of stock if there are 2,926,910 units on shelves, their is definitely something fishy about these numbers.



2010 Hardware Sales Predictions

Wii: 20m- Sales will drop, but not by much.

PS3: 13.5m- It sold 12m in 2009, its only common sense it will sell more this year.

Xbox 360: 11m- It sold 11m in 2008 and 2009, I think it will sell the same.

My Fanboy Speech...

Why do you have to make excuses to defend a product that you purchased, but that's the only connection you have to it, you don't make it, you don't lose or gain money on it. I don't see where all of the defensiveness comes in, there is no reason for you or anybody else to feel obligated to defend it. Now I would understand if one of you were a developer for the product and you slaved over said product only to hear somebody call it stupid or a piece of junk. But none of you developed it, none of you are mature enough to realize that. Choosing a product all comes down to preference, you chose said product because it is best for you. Simple as that!

Zucas on 12 February 2010
psrock said:
Sony overshipped somewhere though?

Did they expect to sell more in Europe yet sent less in America?

It's hard to ship 13 million when they have close to 3 million in the stores.

for insight as to what might happen take a look at MS's Q2 FY 2007 shipment numbers and Q3 FY 2007 shipment numbers (or Q4 2006 and Q1 2007).  This is the example I'm always bringing up, but overshipped vastly and in the next quarter, only shipped 600k. 



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Rickz0r on 12 February 2010
MaxwellGT2000 said:
Uh yeah no more shipped vs sold threads, its a rule ya know :P
~locking~

This isn't about Shipped vs Sold . I was just trying to understand some of the numbers.. I simply added the 'sold to customers' 2010 numbers, to the total Shipping numbers from 2009, to get an idea of what the total shipping number was. To some, that's not valid.. But I think it's rather close.. But anyway, ioi already solved it ^^.  And thanks to Zucas, I know other sources have about the same numbers as Vgchartz. 



psrock on 12 February 2010
Zucas said:
psrock said:
Sony overshipped somewhere though?

Did they expect to sell more in Europe yet sent less in America?

It's hard to ship 13 million when they have close to 3 million in the stores.

for insight as to what might happen take a look at MS's Q2 FY 2007 shipment numbers and Q3 FY 2007 shipment numbers (or Q4 2006 and Q1 2007).  This is the example I'm always bringing up, but overshipped vastly and in the next quarter, only shipped 600k. 

All I want to know is where are those consoles?

Maybe it's all those 250gb



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
mhsillen on 12 February 2010
BHR-3 said:
mhsillen said:

Forget About Doing Everything For Less, JUMPING IN, and Nintendo's Saying Whatever It Is Mine's SONY ONLY

BHR-3- Would you please tell me what this means, I am in the dark, thanks

oh man thats funny right there i get someone quoting my sig in threads alot lately wat the hell does this have to do with the thread

just messing with u back in the day people all on vgc had in red cap letters ps3 is the future now believe this got to 360 guys so they put 360 is the future now jump in in green caps in there sigs  then wen the slim came out they changed there saying to it only does everything for less and added that to there sigs i didnt want to join this gang so i made my own saying sony only it also rhymes too

 

OT i think we should all just calm down on this console war and all "my ps3 is undertracked" "no my 360 is undertracked" "ha ha my Wii is beating you all" its just a piece of plastic who cares if the sales are not excatly perfect the truth will expose itself soon as stated already if theres something off im sure vgc will fix it just be paitient

also it doesnt matter shipped vs sold use shipped #s to base the console war between ps3 and 360 its more acurate eventually the consoles shipped will get sold right? its not like there going to just stop selling and stay on shelves and the sales will stay the way they are

thanks dude



theprof00 on 12 February 2010
ioi said:

@theprof

Personally (and this is where people accuse me of bias or whatever) I think Sony's definition of "sold" to retail must include things like replacement units or demo units or something that we aren't classing as a "sale". The fact we are 7-8m lower on PS2 and PSP as well would support this idea. They used to report "production shipments" which was 2-3m units higher still each quarter and definitely included every single unit that left the production line, but supposedly changed to "ship-in" or "sold to retail" a few years back to move in line with Nintendo and Microsoft. Problem is that I still don't think they have moved in line and their figures are inflated for some reason.

The bottom line is that I don't have a definitive answer to your question, just theories.

All I know is that we estimate sell-through and that compared to everyone else our figures line up. Why it seems that there are 3m PS3 units that have been sold by Sony but not in the hands of consumers and 7-8m PS2 and PSP units is something I don't have an answer for, but I'm pretty sure that our figures are an accurate representation of how many units have actually been purchased by consumers at retail.

I've been saying the same thing in other threads ie they've been counting the airforce sales or sales to other institutions. Although it's just a theory, I'm glad to know that such possibilities are considered on your part as well.

Also, I've been wondering if there might be a price drop in the rest of the world coming up. That coupled with the numerous high-profile games about to release makes me think that there are a lot stockpiles hanging out somewhere.

Thanks for the reply!



Zucas on 12 February 2010
psrock said:
Zucas said:
psrock said:
Sony overshipped somewhere though?

Did they expect to sell more in Europe yet sent less in America?

It's hard to ship 13 million when they have close to 3 million in the stores.

for insight as to what might happen take a look at MS's Q2 FY 2007 shipment numbers and Q3 FY 2007 shipment numbers (or Q4 2006 and Q1 2007).  This is the example I'm always bringing up, but overshipped vastly and in the next quarter, only shipped 600k. 

All I want to know is where are those consoles?

Maybe it's all those 250gb

Well same question as to where all the other PS2's and PSPs are where our numbers line up and still a large difference.  Just as ioi is saying above me, maybe they are classifying things differently that we just don't know about.  I mean it only seems to be Sony that has this difference.  Once again, I don't like accusing these companies of deception especially in financial reports where they have to very clear cut, but it's possible they are spinning a few things to inflate their numbers (which has been done before) and we just don't know about. 

I don't actually have an answer as to why there is a difference and I'm not going to start throwing out things I can't confirm, but all I can say is that this difference does exist and other trackers are saying the same thing.  I guess we could question whether the shortages actully exist (maybe something retailers are screwing up on).  But I really can't give a definite answer on that.