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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 7 4.17%
 
First half of 2023 4 2.38%
 
Second half of 2023 15 8.93%
 
First half of 2024 8 4.76%
 
Second half of 2024 14 8.33%
 
First half of 2025 6 3.57%
 
Second half of 2025 4 2.38%
 
Later than above 1 0.60%
 
Never 109 64.88%
 
Total:168
xl-klaudkil said:
I remembered people thought the wii could beat the ps2 because of its monster sales.

Lets just wait and see if the switch can keep selling as high as its doing now for another 3 years.

This.  People are constantly overestimating Nintendo's legs for their consoles, while underestimating Sony's.  I also remember the people who said the PS4 was never going to beat the Wii, even though 2 out of 3 of Sony's previous systems did.  And the one that didn't came in a pretty close 2nd in that same gen with the Wii, 101.6M vs 87.4M.  And that was the gen they utterly screwed up.  Then, we had it won't hit 110M, which it will by the end of this quarter.  And now, it's "it won't hit 120M," even though it is a mere 12M away from that number, now. 

Now, I can definitely see Switch hitting 100M, give or take 10M.  But, it's not going to hit 125M, like the PS4 will most likely do.  I mean, the PS4 looks to be on track to sell 120M even without a price cut.  Give it one or two more, I can definitely see it hitting 125M-130M. 

I would just like to know what is going to keep the Switch selling ~20M every year for the next 4 years to get it to that number.  By 2021, all of Nintendo's big hitters will be out.  It will be receiving fewer AA and AAA ports thanks to those teams focusing on the newer systems.  Speaking of which, the novelty of being the new toy on the block will have completely worn off, as well.  And it will have already had a $199 SKU for over a year, pushing sales for those not willing to pay $299, so a price cut will have less of an impact by then than it would for the PS4.



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PortisheadBiscuit said:
yo33331 said:

One interesting fact is there is much close calls with nintendo and sony's consoles and always nintendo are behind when they are close to reaching some of the sony's consoles numbers. Examples:
Wii vs PS1 - 101.6M vs 102.5M
DS vs PS2 - 154M vs 158M
3DS vs PSP - 75M vs 82M
Wii U vs Vita - 14M vs 16M

Lmao what the heck is this? 

You can easily switch this to Wii vs PS3, DS vs PSP, and Vita vs 3DS and have different outcomes. 

I added aditional information in the post about these examples. The same can't be done for nintendo with so close numbers. When we have so close wars like these always sony's console had won. That is what I am trying to say. There isn't close sony console under any of the nintendo consoles.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 11 January 2020

Amnesia said:

If this Switch 2 belongs too the 9th for you, this means that Nintendo kills the current Switch, at best this Switch 2 can be retro compatible but it will be a really different machine with specific games not usable on the current Switch/Lite

Well, yeah, they'll drop support for the Switch at some point. By the end of this year, the Switch will be close to four years old. Given the usual life cycle for Nintendo consoles, I imagine they'll start winding things down for the Switch within the next two years, with the Switch 2 (assuming that's what their next-gen system will be) coming out no later than Nov. 2023. That's closer to the launch of the PS5 & XSX than the Switch's launch was to that of the PS4 & XBO.



Shadow1980 said:
Amnesia said:

If this Switch 2 belongs too the 9th for you, this means that Nintendo kills the current Switch, at best this Switch 2 can be retro compatible but it will be a really different machine with specific games not usable on the current Switch/Lite

Well, yeah, they'll drop support for the Switch at some point. By the end of this year, the Switch will be close to four years old. Given the usual life cycle for Nintendo consoles, I imagine they'll start winding things down for the Switch within the next two years, with the Switch 2 (assuming that's what their next-gen system will be) coming out no later than Nov. 2023. That's closer to the launch of the PS5 & XSX than the Switch's launch was to that of the PS4 & XBO.

I think the same, but I see the next 9th gen hybrid system of Nintendo (a sort of Switch but with the power of a PS4(Pro)), for Nov 2022 instead, which let a comfortable room for a Switch Pro this year running games at higher resolution and framerate, but it will be still quite far from base X1 and PS4 in term of power.



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LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

yo33331 said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Lmao what the heck is this? 

You can easily switch this to Wii vs PS3, DS vs PSP, and Vita vs 3DS and have different outcomes. 

I added aditional information in the post about these examples. The same can't be done for nintendo with so close numbers. When we have so close wars like these always sony's console had won. That is what I am trying to say. There isn't close sony console under any of the nintendo consoles.

You're comparing consoles that weren't in the same generation to fit some odd narrative. I guess if it entertains you... 



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PortisheadBiscuit said:
yo33331 said:

I added aditional information in the post about these examples. The same can't be done for nintendo with so close numbers. When we have so close wars like these always sony's console had won. That is what I am trying to say. There isn't close sony console under any of the nintendo consoles.

You're comparing consoles that weren't in the same generation to fit some odd narrative. I guess if it entertains you... 

No, I am not saying anything with it. I know that this is irrelevant comparison. Just realize when I was looking through the numbers that when nintendo and sony go close to sales battle always sony wins. I am not saying anything about the consoles them self. I am not lover of nintendo (and not a hater too) but the switch looks impressive to me. I admit.

And I know they are not in the same generation but what of it ? vgcharts had done many many comparisons on different types and even gens of consoles just to see how given console is going. These examples were just to see how often times nintendo comes close to particular sony consoles sales level and finishes close before it. It is just interesting to me. And if we continue the trend then the switch has to do the same thing, as many people have said, maybe comes close but finish just with a few milions behind PS4. But it may change we will see.



Is there a Nintendo console that didn't die hard in its last years?



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This thread is funny to read in conjunction with this one:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241634

Launch-aligned, Switch is outpacing the PS4 through three years. In the thread above, there's universal agreement that Switch will still be ahead of the PS4 through four years. What this means is that Switch only needs one more good year after year 4 because the PS4 started to notably decline in its sixth year, so Switch can afford its own decline eventually. Despite that, this thread is filled with a bucket load of "never" responses, both in the posts and in the poll.

The general idea in this thread is that Nintendo did its best to maintain the Switch's price for a long time, only to then decide to replace Switch quickly within two years and give it a shorter lifecycle than the much less successful 3DS. How does that even make sense to you?

Even now, almost three years after Switch's launch, people still haven't fully grasped what it means to be a hybrid. That means half of the equation is portable, and that in turn means that Nintendo will extend the life with revisions like they have always done; this can be safely assumed to be a given. Furthermore, the launch of Switch 2, regardless of when it happens, means that Nintendo will continue to support the original Switch similar to how they supported the 3DS after Switch's launch, because the new console can't serve the low end market properly. So if anyone assumes that Switch's sales will be next to nothing as soon as its successor hits, think again.



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vivster said:
Is there a Nintendo console that didn't die hard in its last years?

Maybe 3DS ? I mean it could died with a little bit stronger sales, but it died on a medium level as opposite to DS and Wii for example ( the numbers and the longevity )



shikamaru317 said:

I'm going to say never. PS4 will almost certainly hit 120m, possibly even 125-130m depending on price cuts and game support after PS5 releases. I doubt Switch will reach that high, I suspect that Nintendo will release Switch 2 by Holiday 2022 at the latest, and I just can't see Switch selling that much before then, it would have to pull off an average of 25m a year in 2020, 2021, and 2022 in order to hit 125m. Switch passing PS4 is not impossible, especially if Switch 2 is 2023 rather than 2022, or if they manage to get Switch Lite down to maybe $120 and Switch down to $200 by Holiday 2021, but never is a safer bet imo. 

You have a lot of explanning to do on why you think sales drop to 0 when a successor releases. And following that logic, why you don't expect the ps4 to stop selling the moment ps5 shows up. I expect the switch to be over 110m by dec 31 2022 and it won't magically stop selling because it's successor just came out.

Last edited by Nu-13 - on 11 January 2020