ninetailschris on 08 November 2013
- I was doing some digging into Mircosoft and Sony quarter results and something clicked! How will next-gen launch games affect profit? So, I did some more digging to find out if we can predict what could be there next quarter results of both companies.
Popular Sony developer from Guerrilla games creators of the "Killzone" series which has sold together close to 5 million sales (on console) went on record earlier this year with the following quote:
"“The architecture is really cool because it’s easier to develop for, you get more memory, you get more hard drive space, you get more processing power so the architecture is easier,” Eric Boltjes told VG247.
“It’s also a lot more demanding, because the production effort needed just to make a next-gen title now is not doubled; It’s quadrupled.”
“That’s because everything needs to look that much better. It takes a lot more people, and that takes a lot more communication. So it does it make things a lot more easier from a technical standpoint, but from a professional standpoint it makes things a lot harder.”
- Now assuming this true and the average game sells 2 million over 2-3 years? How can Sony hope to recover the money for such a game like Killzone Shadowfall? Some may argue that it is a launch game but many games don't sell well just because it's launch. Also the concern is can Sony sell a game to audience that already may own Call of Duty or Battlefield which will admittly more popular at launch. Some may argue that some people will want there "next-gen" experience and buy Killzone. But the problem I see is that to average consumer Call of Duty PS4 looks next-gen and Battlefield. Killzone is going to have trouble fighting the third-party like previously because they all launch the same day on the system. The problem also is killzone is famous or have there online on life-support after a couple of weeks. How will killzone hold ground with online when the online monsters are right around the corner? Lastly this tv will be covered by third party shooters in comparison to Killzone. There budget it much bigger than Sony and often do a better job.
- Knack is a family-friendly game which I think will suffer the puppeteer game Sony release earlier. The market just doesn't seem to be there for Sony sadly. Sony seem to have push the crowd away for so long that barely none violent mature game sells. Looking at vgchartz most casual or family-fun games sell most on nintendo followed by mircosoft. I suggest you look up Just Dance, Star War games, and etc. (Side note the decline in little big planet does help either) . Plus kids these days on ps3 aren't buying casual games there playing minecraft and Call of Duty which both will be at launch. Knack graphically isn't that appealing to kids because it isn't a super realistic or even that colorful like Mario 3d World. It is somewhere in the middle where it probably is going to be ignored like puppeteer. The game has a obvious big or more than average budget and I highly doubt it's going to sell great. It will likely be in birgin bin in 2 months. Being a new Ip family-friendly launch game doesn't hurt my prediction either.
- Xbox One is a wildcard but looks to have the hardest fight.
- Launching with "Dead Rising 3" which is third person zombie shooter. This was never a system mover for Xbox 360 and it seems to be half funded by Mircosoft. The loss of this is probably not going to be much and more of a problem for Capcom.
- Crimison Dragon a downloadable game only is low-budget suggesting from its online price of $20 and graphics. Minimal loss if any with this title.
- Rise a promise flop which will be the one to cost Mircosoft the money the most. The game has no hype in real life or online and isn't getting review hype either. I can see this costing Mircosoft an arm and leg when it is all said and done. The budget seems the be that of Crisis game that didn't sell well one 3 platforms. How will this profit and who thought this would be a good launch game? What is the market for this game? Casuals? Hardcore? People who like history? This game would be luckily to outsell Lost Planet 3 if sold just on the Xbox 360.
- Killer Instinct has only 8 characters and download only which makes me believe it's low budget.
- Forza 5 should do fine because it looks like a upgraded Forza 4 with less content in 1080p 60 fps.
- Kinect Rivals will flop and the reason is what I have been purposely avoiding this post. What casual is going to buy "Xbox One" for $500 for Kinect Rivals? The game retails if I'm wrong correct me for $6-50 dollars. Who in there right mind going to throw down 50 bucks after spending $500 for a game they can basically play on Xbox 360 now? Casuals like value and $500 dollars is telling us right off the back the people buying day one are hardcore. 'Xbox One' better drop the price soon if it hopes to recover the casual market or it will find the issue the 'Wii U' faced.
- Overall, I see software sells to take a hit from 'Xbox One' pricing . The economic isn't great right now and paying $500 makes you carefully pick your games. Xbox one may face a problem of 'Casual' or 'Hardcore' saying I will pick up Call of Duty or Minecraft and call it a day.
- If you want a quick summary of what I said read below:
- Summary for Sony: Sony will not only be fighting the rivial companies "Xbox One" (hardcore) and "Wii U" (family) it be fighting there own third party. Battlefield(EA) and Call of Duty (Activation) for your go to shooter. A casual market that if isn't filled by Minecraft isn't there at all to support a game like Knack at launch. Add to the fact that system is launching at a loss can't help either.
- Summary for Mircosoft: Rise has a high chance of bombing(90% in my opinion) because lack of a market and hype. Downloadable games were as smart move for low risk and high reward. Kinect Rivials is a promised flop at 100 percent rate because "Xbox One" priced it's itself out of the market for that type of game. Mircosoft also faces potenial sells lose on an overall stand point because of the price of the system and having to choose carefully. Hardware loss are promise because of price difference. You could buy Ps4 (Hardcore and buy two games ) or a WiiU (Casual and buy four games) or even Ipad. Xbox One faces the same problem Sony faces on the front that third party are going to be the number one choice over first party because of price of the system and general interest.
- In conclusion,I feel that Xbox will suffer more than Ps4 next quarter results but both will be heavy loses. Ps4 prices at least opens the door that they may buy first party while Xbox One feels like risk of investment to the average spender. Both launch games are questionable and in my opinion poorly plan. Can you picture infamous launching instead of Killzone? There is no real open world game on the system beside Assassin Creed 4 but the two are way difference experiences in comparison to Killzone and Call of Duty. What about Fable instead or Rise? What is your opinion on what will happen next quarter for Sony and Mircosoft gaming divisions?
"Excuse me sir, I see you have a weapon. Why don't you put it down and let's settle this like gentlemen" ~ max
