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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict the 360 Q1 shipment numbers

 

Predict the 360 Q1 shipment numbers

0k 25 20.66%
 
1~250k 10 8.26%
 
250~500k 4 3.31%
 
500k~1m 31 25.62%
 
1m+ 51 42.15%
 
Total:121

Over 1 million



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I'm going to go for about 1.2m as that is pretty much how it has been each q1 in the past. Which would in my opinion be conclusive proof that it did indeed win 2011. Because the sony fans were saying it was major overshipped for the holidays so by that logic they would not need to ship much at all. So if they ship roughly the same they have for previous years would indicate that either they are continuing to overstuff the channels (unlikely) or that demand in holidays was higher then some people on here thought. Anything around 500k would indicate vgc was right and that they did overship last quarter.



Hyruken said:
I'm going to go for about 1.2m as that is pretty much how it has been each q1 in the past. Which would in my opinion be conclusive proof that it did indeed win 2011. Because the sony fans were saying it was major overshipped for the holidays so by that logic they would not need to ship much at all. So if they ship roughly the same they have for previous years would indicate that either they are continuing to overstuff the channels (unlikely) or that demand in holidays was higher then some people on here thought. Anything around 500k would indicate vgc was right and that they did overship last quarter.

You are wrong. Even if XBOX360 is shipped 1.0M+, the same group of fans who don't like 360 will say MS overships 360 again in this Q. PS3 was already classified as the most selling gaming device of 2011 in this site. There is no chance for 360 to be no.1 selling console in VG.



Over 9000! errr....I mean over 1 million.




starcraft: "I and every PS3 fanboy alive are waiting for Versus more than FFXIII.
Me since the games were revealed, the fanboys since E3."

Skeeuk: "playstation 3 is the ultimate in gaming acceleration"

Guessed .5-1m. Even if they didn't ship much till Feb. some stores would still have been running low. Retailers may have overestimated Kinect Star Wars a bit as well. I'm now doubting M$ would report less than a million. Hmmmm.... I'll stick with kowen. He seems like good people as alternate internet identities go.



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Easy...

> 1 million = VGC is undertracking it in somewhere

So I go with 900k,



So then if it is in the 500-750k range then vgc is about right anything above that = undertracked?



If you look at a lot of the weekly ads in the US there are a lot of 360 sales, so there's no doubt in my mind there's a price drop coming at E3 and/or there's a lot of stock. Maybe both?

I think anything over 1.0 million means It's undertracked here as there was already 85 days worth of supply on the shelves according to kowenicki's table.



It's just that simple.

Hyruken said:
I'm going to go for about 1.2m as that is pretty much how it has been each q1 in the past. Which would in my opinion be conclusive proof that it did indeed win 2011. Because the sony fans were saying it was major overshipped for the holidays so by that logic they would not need to ship much at all. So if they ship roughly the same they have for previous years would indicate that either they are continuing to overstuff the channels (unlikely) or that demand in holidays was higher then some people on here thought. Anything around 500k would indicate vgc was right and that they did overship last quarter.

*facepalm* Right to begin with, what's 'normal' for microsoft to ship this quarter is 1.3m-1.7m not 1.2m & more importantly beyond that it's not just a question of did microsoft overship in 0ct-Dec 2011, it's a question of did they overship in Jan-Mar 2011 as well. In Jan-Mar last year they shipped 2.7m, that's 1.2m more then they did the previous year, they were overshipping in that quarter as well to make up for undershipping in the Oct-Dec 2010 holiday.

The facts are:

For every 0.1m less than 2.7m they ship this quarter, that's how many they overshipped in Jan-Mar 2011

And for every 0.1m less than 1.5m they ship for this quarter, that's how many they overshipped in Oct-Dec 2011 as well.



that's new to me,only over 2.7m can be undertracked because they overshipped in last year Q1(seems like Q2/Q3 doesn't matter)
if you said that in first page i would change the poll,damn it's too late now