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Forums - Sales - Why do people expect so much from systems just out of the gate?

Console 3DS PSV DS PSP PS3 Wii X360
Launch Year 15m~ 480k~! 2.86m 468k 1.25m 2.93m 1.17m
First Full Year     10.9m 9.6m 8.64m 17.87m 6.73m
LTD     151m~ 73m~ 60m~ 94m~ 64m~

With the inevitable low western PSVita weekly sales ahead of us, and the shock at 3DS sales, I wonder if people realise that new systems rarely power out of the gate and sell like they should be in their 3rd year ...

3DS launched earlier I know, but take away the price cut and it still would have finished its launch year millions ahead of the DS's.

The first full year for 3DS (which you could compare to this year seen as it launched in march) but 2012, will be, again, millions ahead of the DS's first full year.

So what's with the need for instant results?



 

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Great topic, pretty thought provoking because it does seem to be a changing trend in the industry. In my view I think there are probably a couple of factors floating around.

1. Talking specifically about the handheld space, I think a lot of people in that industry are edgy about the impact that other portable devices such as iPhones, iPads, and Android phones and tablets on designated handheld gaming devices, like the 3DS. They may see poor initial sales of a 3DS as an indicator that the consumer market is turning its back on dedicated gaming handhelds. Now, whether you believe this to be the case or not doesn't really matter, any evidence that suggests this might be the case would cause Nintendo's share price to drop and a lack of investment in the company. This further compounds the idea that dedicated gaming handhelds are on the way out.

2. Overall the gaming industry suffers from a lot more scrutiny than it did before. If initial sales are not deemed to be very good by the gaming media and engaged online video game enthusiasts, forum posters and bloggers, the effects on the console can be devastating from a marketing perspective. The internet gets filled with "do0med" posts and articles as forum-goers and even bigger gaming websites like IGN publicly ponder over whether the console is "dead on arrival". A marketing nightmare for any console producer. The effect becomes cyclonic, the more people talk about it, the more people believe such a product is "do0med".



Hype is to blame here, and high expectations, happens every console, people never learn not to expect greatest results first few months



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

Humans thrive on competition. We pick whos against who, we pick a side, and then we cheer our "team" to victory.



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C'mon, man. You were there. You remember people fighting for the PS2. You remember people not being able to get it for months (Like me--I couldn't get mine until March of the next year!). You remember people camping out for the Xbox 360. You remember that, at the time, the Dreamcast was the biggest single day money maker of all time (Google it!). You know how hard it was to get our hands on my hot, throbbing Wii.

We expect these results because we've seen these results. Maybe the heat dies off quickly after the initial boom but we expect a new device to be met with some demand. The DS was an unproven commodity at the time. We didn't know what to make of it. The PSP was Sony's first foray into handheld gaming. Again, it had to prove itself. The other consoles had hype and legacy backing them up. That's why I was shocked to see that the 3DS wasn't selling. It had the hype. It had the legacy. It had some awesome features. I expected it to fly off of shelves. Now, with the PSV, it performed about as well as I expected. It lacks "newness".

Also, think about the failed consoles in history (I guess the Dreamcast can be included though it did sell pretty well in its two years--just not well enough to save Sega). You can normally tell right off the bat if it will be a runaway success. With our unknown consoles of tomorrow (Wii U, Xbox Infinity, and PS4), we want to know which console will be the "standard bearer". We all want it to be our console of choice and we all believe in our favorite brand. We expect them to do well, too. That's why PS fans expected the PS3 to jump ahead of the Wii and 360 right out of the gate. When it doesn't happen, it's hard to accept.

Reality and expectations are two different things. If you don't believe me, ask some of my ex-girlfriends.