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Don't overestimate the popularity of Mario in Japan. NSMB's crazy sales have to do with the 2D gameplay, not the mascot. The open world 3D gameplay has never taken off in Japan like it has in the west.

I'd expect about 3 million for Galaxy in Japan; NSMB is on its way to 6 million.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.