You have valid points and history may very well repeat itself.
But I doubt it. As ckmlb stated, Nintendo is actually making a push toward casual gamers this time around. Previous to this, casual gamers were simply interested in something novel and once that initial "wow" wore off, they moved on. There was nothing new to keep them interested.
Do I expect this Wii insanity to slow down? Oh, absolutely. Many of those casual gamers who were fighting to get a Wii over the past year will realize that they don't really like gaming and move on. But many of them will stay because Nintendo is actually attempting to court them this time around.

Or check out my new webcomic: http://selfcentent.com/







