The mistake you make is assuming that its a zero sum game. Every single one of the console manufacturers can "win" if they have the best business model. Nintendo showed that last gen where they still made a lot of money even though they weren't the market leader. MS's entertainment division has been profitable for 3 quarters in a row and its looking like it will be profitable this quarter as-well. Microsoft were very wise not to drop the price very often as A they aren't having the problem that sony is having with their shareholders/upper management and B they're now profitable.
A price cut in NA will have more impact then the price cut in Europe did (and it was a success as average sales are up week on week significantly). The NA pricecut will be more effective because the 360 is a stronger brand in NA then it is in Europe. It wont make the 360 "win" as the wii will retain its market lead but what it will do is stimulate demand that should hopefully flow onto the holidays season where the seasonal sales increase and the great games being released will carry the 360 for the rest of the year.
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