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It is hard to imagine it doing well without Halo, Dreamcast numbers is maybe possible.
5-10 million perhaps, it was strong hardware, could get solid third party support and Microsoft had a fairly strong brand back then.
If they had an alternative launch IP/game they could put their weight and marketing behind the way they did for Halo, they could have had another killer app instead, but I don’t know what it would be. Securing exclusive GTA III perhaps? Get ID to make a DOOM game?