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bumidan on 10 July 2008
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Nidan said:
bumidan said:

PS3 Hardware

 

Sony stated that they will ship/sell 10 million consoles this fiscal year.  Last FY ending Mar 2008, they have already shipped 9.24 million consoles.  I am fairly optimistic that they will beat those numbers.

 

Therefore for my projections, I will use a figure of 11(*) million consoles.

 

From the previous threads, the loss per console for the PS3 for FY ending Mar 2008 was $210.50(*) .  This was a $270(*) per unit cost reduction from the previous FY.

 

With more cost reductions, I estimate that another $150(*) of cost reductions and efficiencies will be shaved off from the hardware.  I will be optimistic and use an average for the whole year of a NET LOSS of $60(*) per console. 

 

PS3 Hardware = 11(*) million x ($60)(*) loss = LOSS OF $660(*) million dollars

 

I find it hard to believe this estimate, Where are they getting this cost reduction from?

I could think of only 1 area which may impact slightly on the price "blue LED"

They would have so many cost increases this year. like


- cost of copper and steel "increased"

-Price of Transport "increased"

- price of labour "increased" although still a small cost in the products total cost.

real price reductions come from redesign, where they use one IC instead of many discrete parts. Thats a hell of a lot of squezing the suppliers to get 150 dollar price reduction after the previous one.

I would estimate $50-$75 price reduction only.

Please note that the cost reductions does not indicate ONLY component costs but all other costs involved as well. 

I agree with the factors that you have mentioned (eg. shipping cost increases, material costs, labor, etc.).

Also, the reason that the fixed costs can come down that much is partly due to the fact that the fixed cost portion will be allocated to many more units.

For example (if you looked at the previous thread before this), the PS3 HW from my analysis went from losing about $480(*) to $210(*) per console.  Of course the shipped units went from 5.5 million to 9.24 million.

But of course, your estimate is as good as mine.