One thing to remember is that half of yearly sales take place over the holiday season. Even though 360 is right now just 2 years and 8 months into its life, that already includes 3 holiday seasons. If 360 is MS's lead console for 5 years, it has just two holiday seasons left. If it's the lead console for 6 years, it has just three left. It will also have the holiday season during 720's launch, but being a lesser selling console, it will likely drop off sharply at that point.
Furthermore, I believe 360 sales are currently peaking. This far in, MS will need "audience expanding" initiatives like an Xmote or Mii-alike just to plateau there a little longer. Upcoming games like Gears 2 or RE5 do little to expand it's potential audience, and so sales will drop if those are the only type of marquee title.
So I'm looking for 360 sales to about double from current numbers. This is a good thread because 40M is a good over/under right now.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
