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I play as you would call harcore games and not casuals. And I'm even scared to jump into a game called MGS4 (just example, not saying I am) because of the fact it says 4.

I haven't played the first 3 at all, and for new gamers they probably haven't even heard of the first 3. This is gonna scare them away from the game, even if the game doesn't rely on past games for story.

Yet then they see a Zelda or Mario game. There is no number just a new title. yes it is not a new ip or anything and mario always sells you will say. But still it is a better strategy imo. You don't feel like your missing anything and not scared of being lost.