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Consoles are increasingly bought by the upper class. PS5 should have some 20-30 million extra Xbox refugees buying the system, but instead it is falling behind the PS4 worldwide.

52% of US Video Game Hardware Buyers in Q4 2025 Had a Household Income of $100K+

I don't think your thesis is completely wrong though as price drops rarely seem to give a second wind to a system but rather just dampen the decline. I do think the upcoming price hike is a step too far for many people, but GTA will probably save Sony's ass this time.