"Operation Epstein Fury" - US and Israel Unprovoked invasion of Iran

[SecondWar]

SvennoJ said:

SecondWar said:

Exactly. Iran will know they can't win jn a straight fight. But looking at the example of Vietnam and Afghanistan, and also Iraq and Ukraine, you can cause significant problems but waging a low-level but long fight and waiting for thr US political class to lose interest.

Coupled with the inflation spike which is almost certainly coming as a result of this war, Trump could have serious problems dealing with the knock-on effects.

It's different than those countries. Iran started an energy war in response by sabotaging and bombing oil and gas refineries around the ME as well as blocking the straight of Hormuz. Europe will suffer as well.

The 'world' still thinks this will be over soon, it won't unless Trump backs down and he's already prepared for 4-5 weeks or as long as it takes. No clue what 'it' is. Also still still believing Trump can actually 'insure' oil tankers.


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/crude-oil-prices-today-iran-war.html

Oil prices ease after Trump says U.S. will insure tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz

Trump said the U.S. Development Finance Corporation will “provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees” for the financial security of all maritime trade through the Gulf.

“If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” the president said in a social media post.

That's pure fantasy, is the US going to sweep for mines to escort each tanker... Is the American tax payer going to pay for each sunk / damaged tanker?

'U.S abandoned Saudi': Iran strikes Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery | Thick black smoke rises in skies

A dramatic escalation in the Middle East conflict as Iran launches a drone strike targeting Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery one of the world’s most critical energy hubs. Visuals show thick black smoke billowing into the sky and flames erupting from the facility after impact.

And it certainly makes sense for Trump to try and do that but it remains to be seen what impact it will have and how Trump's insurance will work. If its expensive, it won't move the dial. If its cheap, it encourages more Iranians attacks on shipping as if they get even a handful it causes major costs for the US. And if Trump then renegade on promises to payout, everything is right back where it started.

Reports are saying traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still falling so still looks like shipping companies aren't willing to take the risk.