Judging from what I've seen, E33 is the frontrunner. I'll also be happy to see it win.
I don't think Yotei will overthrow it, not because it will lack quality though. DS2 might have had a chance, especially since Kojima is a TGA darling but it seems to have fallen sort of the acclaim needed for this. Metroid Prime 4 releases too late in the year to be considered.
Personally, it's a toss up between DK and E33 so far. Silksong is quite close but I'm not done with it yet.







