Lebanon’s government is discussing disarming Hezbollah. What could happen?
Lebanese cabinet ministers are meeting in the Presidential Palace outside Beirut. On the top of the agenda is a resolution to assert the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state – a euphemism for disarming Hezbollah.
The meeting could represent a historic crossroad for Lebanon. If the Lebanese government officially declares that all armed groups outside the state are illegitimate, it would practically outlaw Hezbollah’s armed wings. But it remains unclear if the cabinet would force the vote on the measure absent of a consensus on the issue. Hezbollah and its close allies in the Amal Movement are represented in the government.
If the cabinet asserts that Hezbollah must give up its weapons, how would the resolution materialise?
It is possible that it would turn out to be a symbolic declaration. Hezbollah has ruled out voluntarily disarming as long as Israel continues to occupy parts of south Lebanon and pose what it says is an “existential threat” to the country.
Some of the group’s critics have floated deploying the Lebanese military to disarm Hezbollah by force. But that scenario would likely lead to a catastrophic civil war that could also break up the Lebanese Armed Forces, with Hezbollah supporters within the military defecting.
At the same time, the prospect of a renewed all-out Israeli assault continues to loom large over the country and its future.
For Hezbollah’s opponents, the time has come to build a state capable of looking after all of its citizens and ending the monopoly of one group over war and peace decisions.
But for Hezbollah and its supporters, the group’s weapons are the only defence against the expansionist aims of Israel, which have been demonstrated clearly in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Syria.
Meanwhile, the people of southern Lebanon continue to endure near daily Israeli attacks that have gone unanswered by both the state and Hezbollah – with tens of thousands unable to return to their devastated villages or rebuild their homes.
Israeli drones drop stun grenades over southern Lebanon village
Israeli drones have flown at low altitude over several areas in southern Lebanon, dropping stun grenades near a border village in a new breach of a ceasefire with Hezbollah.
According to Lebanon’s state news agency NNA, the drones were spotted over the coastal region of Tyre and neighbouring towns, as well as the Qasmiyeh and al-Jouar areas.
Under a ceasefire agreement, Israel was supposed to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon by January 26. The deadline was extended to February 18, but Israel still maintains a military presence at five border outposts.
Hezbollah chief warns Israel against rekindling war
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem is speaking at a memorial event for General Saeed Izadi, a commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) who was killed in an Israeli air strike in June, according to the Hezbollah-run Al-Manar media.
During his remarks, Qassem warned Israel against re-starting a broader war on Lebanon, saying if it does so, rockets will fall in Israeli territory.
Qassem spoke about the ceasefire with Israel, which he said Hezbollah fully respected but Israel violated “thousands of times”.
He also criticised the latest version of a roadmap pushed by US envoy Thomas Barrack for Hezbollah to disarm, saying it did not come with sufficient guarantees that Israel would halt its attacks.
“If we surrender our weapons, the aggression will not stop, and this is what Israeli officials are saying,” he said, noting that Hezbollah could not agree to the latest proposed timetable.
“If Israel decides to wage a large-scale war, missiles will rain down on it again, and all the security they’ve been working on for eight months will collapse.”
To improve stability in Lebanon, Qassem called for cooperation “within a framework of national unity” that is not beholden to “American or other tutelage”.
