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SvennoJ on 16 July 2025
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‘A very volatile situation’ as Israel escalates attacks on Syria

We’ve spoken to Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King’s College London, about the latest developments in Syria and what has gone wrong since the declaration of a ceasefire in Suwayda on Tuesday.

Here’s what he said:

“We were not just talking about a ceasefire internally within Syria, but we were also told that the US and Israel had reached an agreement for Israeli strikes within Syria to stop at least during nightfall.

“That did not happen because of the events on the ground in Suwayda.

“So what happened here is there is one specific Druze militia led by a cleric who has had relations with Israel in the past and has been tied to the al-Assad regime in the past as well.

“He along with another group of Druze clerics released a statement saying that they welcomed the ceasefire. Later on, he basically said that he had nothing to do with this statement, that it was imposed on him and that he rejects it entirely – and his group began fighting again.

“And when they began fighting again, Israel stepped up its strikes once more, supposedly to protect the Druze community but more likely here to coordinate and defend this one specific Druze militia with whom Israel has now deepening and more extensive ties since the fall of the al-Assad regime.

“So this is a very volatile situation. This has not stayed just in Suwayda. It has escalated to Damascus with Israeli strikes on Syrian government military targets.

“It looks like Israel and Syria are descending very quickly towards the paradigm of open and direct confrontation, which is a far cry from where we were a week ago when there was talk of normalisation or at least a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the al-Sharaa regime in Damascus.”


Israel looking ‘to export the Lebanon model to Syria’

Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King’s College London, says Israel’s motivation since the fall of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in December has been to keep Syria unstable and governed by a weak central government.

“Basically to export the Lebanon model to Syria,” he told Al Jazeera.

“That looked like it could change. The US under Trump, as we saw not long ago, rescinded sanctions against the Syrian regime. Israel didn’t want them to do that, but Israel was nudged by the US and other actors into a more conciliatory position.”

However, Israel is now “reverting to form”, Geist Pinfold noted. “It had a chance to pursue a different paradigm of either normalisation or at least more cooperation and dialogue with the Syrian government. It seems to have chosen military hegemony through supporting one specific proxy group, this Druze militia based in Suwayda.”

Geist Pinfold also said the attack on Damascus appeared “performative” but warned it could quickly escalate into something bigger. We are very, very close to Israel launching more prolonged, more direct and more dangerous and damaging strikes throughout Syria.”