We have to remember that Sega made a bunch of knee-jerk decisions because of PlayStation and in this scenario, the Saturn we know may have been different.
When Sony announced their target specs for PS1, Sega panicked at it being more powerful than Saturn and late into development added an extra processor which increased its power but also made it more difficult to develop for and more expensive.
On top of that, they bungled the launch in the US by moving up the date by a few months to beat PS1 to market. This angered retailers because only a select few were included, angered developers because they had games planned for the original launch and angered fans because it led to a post-launch drought.
Hypothetically without PS1, Sega doesn’t add the extra processor so the hardware is weaker, cheaper and easier to develop for (perhaps weaker & easier cancel each other out somewhat?) and they don’t anger retailers, fans or developers with the rushed launch.
As for 3rd party developers, the games that went to PS1 wouldn’t simply cease to exist. They went to PS1 because it was the best option but without that option being available, they would have gone to the next best thing. Games like Tomb Raider, Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, etc. would have still been developed. The big question is what platform would they go to? Saturn, N64 or PC or a combination of them?
As for sales
Gen+SNES
NA-~40 million
JP-~20 million
EU/Other-~20 million
Total-80+ million
Sat+PS1+N64
NA-~60 million
JP-~30 million
EU/Other-~50 million
Total-140+ million
Gen 5 had a modest increase over Gen 4 in NA/Japan and Sony deserves some credit for that but I believe the market would have continued to grow regardless in these regions, maybe not as high but still solid growth.
However, in EU/Other, Sony was the first to really break through in these regions and I’m sure they would have seen growth in the mid-late 90s without Sony, it wouldn’t have been nearly as big.
My prediction
NA-~50 million
JP-~25 million
EU/Other-~25 million
Total-~100+ million
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
