Prediction: Microsoft to become largest 3rd party publisher.

[only777]

LudicrousSpeed said:

only777 said:

I wasn't happy that Pemalite was rather mean to my video post and made some untrue assumptions about my post intentions, so to please him, here's where I was going to take that locked thread, but now in text only form.

Ok well for starters, I watched your video. You can't blame him for making assumptions when two seconds into the video you're calling Xbox a "cum filled sock" or something to that effect. Also having watched your video, it's GameFAQS tier console warring trash, full of misinformation and horrific math.

only777 said:

Microsoft has ruined Xbox, the business decision to push Game Pass above all else is a disaster that is playing out in front of us all.

They aren't pushing GamePass above all else, though. They have said GamePass is around 10-15% of their business and that it will remain that way. They also have very high revenue and make a lot of money from Xbox, so where does this "disaster" come from? You seem to be under the assumption that if you aren't selling the most consoles, you aren't making any money.

only777 said:

Starfield not pushing the needle in hardware sales and Gamepass simply doesn't generate the revenue to fund the running and development costs of the Many, many Microsoft Game studios.  I did layout the maths in the video I created, but I'm not linking it again as I don't want to be branded as self promoting.

Good, please don't link that video again. The "math" in the video is horrible and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of math and of business. You brush off the fact that MS has confirmed GamePass is profitable by essentially saying "its not profitable, trust me bro". You go on to explain that it can't be profitable because Microsoft has spent billions on acquisitions. That's... not how business works.

only777 said:

We saw in the FTC leak the costs of bringing 3rd party games to the service.  We know that games like COD are costing around a billion dollars to get out the door now.  So with all the costs of development and maintenance outweighing what the service is actually bring in, at some point something has to give.

This is the kind of misinformation that your video is chock full of. Which is funny, because you use the term "fake news!!!" throughout your video, and yet here you are literally hand crafting a steaming pile of fake news for us. So just to clear this up, when you say "we know games like CoD cost around a billion dollars to get out the door", what you mean to say is you found a link where someone says a future CoD might cost a billion to put out. But they base that on a complete guess when it comes to the budget of CoD, and then they also connect that to some nonsensical report that some unnamed publisher spent $550,000,000 in marketing for ONE unnamed game. In other words, it's bullshit. Not to mention it's irrelevant. The money spent to get CoD out the door doesn't relate to other games in any way.

only777 said:

Xbox sales are slowing down, Game Pass is not bringing in new users to the Xbox Console eco system, Starfield actually saw two thirds of its sales from PC users.  So what's actually happening here?  Xbox players are migrating to either PC or leaving the system altogether and going to PlayStation.

More unsubstantiated statements with no facts to back them up. Even the one thing you provided a link for, is just UK boxed sales. In other words, yawn.

only777 said:

In a world where the primary Game Pass platform is PC, Microsoft has a problem.  PC gaming is too entrenched in Steam for Microsoft to realistically find more than 50 million users, and with Xbox console sales stalling Microsoft has to do something.

MS doesn't want to find all those users on PC. They don't expect GamePass to reach the levels you're claiming they won't hit.

only777 said:

That something is to become the biggest 3rd party in the industry.  I think Game Pass will continue on as Microsoft's PC subscription service, although all Microsoft studio's titles will see releases on Steam, PlayStation and Nintendo. 

I also think we are looking at the last Xbox generation in the Series X|S consoles.  With Game Pass failing to push Microsoft out of 3rd place, they will refocus their efforts into becoming the biggest powerhouse 3rd party publisher in the industry because this makes the most business sense.

So you say they can't find a good footing on PC because of Steam, and then go on to say PC is the only place GamePass will exist? Also, Microsoft's titles already see releases on Steam.

only777 said:

I believe the timeline will look something like this:

• 2024: Starfield is announced for PlayStation 5
• 2026: Xbox Game Pass is re-branded to Microsoft Game Pass
• 2027: Microsoft announce that there will be no new Xbox consoles

Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

Also, something else regarding your video. Are you like... completely oblivious to the history of Sony or something? You go on about how MS doesn't deserve "credit" for Sea of Thieves because they bought Rare twenty years ago and yet the example you give for Sony creating a great franchise and not just buying it is footage of Last of Us, from Naughty Dog, which Sony bought. This year all they had for software is baseball and Spider-Man, a Marvel IP developed by Insomniac, another studio they bought.

Honest question, we're three years into the generation, has Sony delivered a single high quality new IP? Oh wait I know, Returnal, that game was ok I guess. Made by Housemarque, a studio they bought. Weird.

KLXVER said:

Doesnt matter when they spend 60+ billion to buy a company. They are not making a profit. They spend more than they make. Easy as that.

Another person that doesn't understand how business works.

Let's say you have $1,000. If you leave that money in the bank, after five years you might have $1,060 thanks to interest.

Alternatively, let's say you can take $400 of that money and buy a 3D printer. You then start printing things for people and you make a profit of $50 annually. After five years you have $850 in the bank and a $400 printer. In other words you have $1250 worth of capital. This is a shitty example but it should make it very easy to understand. While it's true, you "spent" $400 on the printer and only profited $250 in those five years, at the end of the day, you are worth more than you are if you just left that money to accrue interest. You can hate business speak all you want, this is accepted accounting methods and all companies use it.

Guess what?  https://www.vgchartz.com/article/465157/microsoft-says-game-pass-is-profitable-claims-does-not-include-first-party-costs/

Once Again I was right.  I told you all that GamePass revene didn't subtract the cost game of development from it's published figure.

But you were all on on the Microsoft propaganda. 

G2, Perma & speed.  I'll await the "You were right" messages here.