Predict what gaming will look like in 2035

[zorg1000]

curl-6 said:

zorg1000 said:

I mean, those first two things don’t really dispute what I said.

I already acknowledged that 150m would have been shocking. I remember those NX discussions from 2015 and back then I was predicting 100 million, here’s my post from May 2015.

zorg1000 on 06 May 2015

If they go with a unified family of devices than I think something like

NX Console, 20-30 million
NX Handheld, 70-80 million
Total, about 100 million

I got the form factor wrong, I thought two separate devices with a shared library rather than a single hybrid device, but I got the general premise correct and thought it would be a massive success.

Sony & Microsoft releasing their games on different platforms would have been a surprise to many but doesn’t really fundamentally change what gaming is like. Playing on a PS5/Series in 2025 is ultimately pretty similar to what playing on a PS4/XBO was like in 2015. Playing Forza on PS or God of War on PC is cool and unexpected but it’s not some mind blowing development that makes gaming unrecognizable.

Every generation sees new advancements in technology & development methods. AI is no different, as of now it hasn’t changed gaming in any way that was unimaginable a decade ago. The games of 2025 are bigger, better looking updates of what 2015 offered.

Forza/Gears on PS or PS first party on Steam are massive changes compared to 2015; both represent giving over some of their biggest IPs to a competing platform in a way that would have been practically unthinkable a decade ago.

And literally nobody in 2015 was talking about how artificial intelligence would threaten developer's livelihoods in the foreseeable future.

To claim AI is "just another technology" or hasn't changed things is nonsense, it's probably the biggest technological breakthrough for humanity since the advent of the internet, and in just a few short years much of the industry already heavily relies on it to speed up development, or in the case of the Switch 2, as part of its core rendering toolkit.  (DLSS)

Claiming any of these things aren't a huge change from a decade ago is absurd.

I guess we just have different opinions on what is considered a massive change.

I’m thinking more like someone playing 2D side-scrollers like Super Mario Bros jumping forward a decade and seeing 3D worlds like Mario 64.

Or someone in 1991 pre-Wolfenstein/Doom/Mortal Kombat, when Sonic the Hedgehog was considered cool & edgy, jumping ahead a decade and seeing the most popular game lets you run around and kill people or bang hookers.

Or a group of kids in 1997 having a sleep over and thinking 4-player split screen for Goldeneye was amazing jumping ahead a decade and they can all play Call of Duty together from across the country.

Or someone in the early 90s when you had a game consoles, a stereo & a VCR all hooked up to the TV simultaneously jumping ahead a decade and you can play games, listen to music and watch movies on a single device.

Take someone in 1993 when console gaming was a war between Nintendo & Sega, jump ahead a decade and Sega is out of the race, Sony has over 70% marketshare and Nintendo is losing to newcomer Microsoft.

Take someone in 1996-1999 when Nintendo is fighting hard to have the best graphics and trying to appeal to sports, racing & shooters fans then jump forward a decade and Nintendo has opted out of making powerful hardware and focusing on motion controls and fitness games.

To me the 80s-90s-00s saw massive changes after massive change in terms of graphics, genres, controllers, form factors, online features, multimedia features, etc. Whereas the last 15 or so years has been more refinement rather than revolution. With the exception of Nintendo unifying their platforms, gaming is for the most part kind of the same place it was at 15 years ago.