From the outset, Israel’s aims were unmistakable:
1) torpedo U.S.-Iran diplomacy;
2) drag Washington into conflict;
3) take out Iran’s nuclear and missile programs;
4) trigger regime change.
If the ceasefire Trump just announced holds—and is paired with serious U.S.-Iran diplomacy—it would mark a strategic defeat for Israel in launching this war.
Netanyahu took his shot. A desperate Hail Mary. And none of it has worked up until now.
Fordow was evacuated. The site may very well be intact.
And in any case, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and advanced centrifuges are now hidden, with a stronger covert breakout ability than ever.
The Iranian public has rallied in defense of the country and against foreign aggression.
If the government channels this unity into a new social contract, it could be transformative. If not, the old polarization may return.
Meanwhile, Iran has hit Israel hard over these 12 days: Tel Aviv, Haifa, the north, south, and other cities have seen major destruction. Military and intelligence sites damaged. Energy and research infrastructure hit.
Israel’s vaunted air defenses failed the test. Its reliance on the U.S. has never been clearer.
Netanyahu saw the costs of a war of attrition and blinked.
But for Iran, can any ceasefire be trusted?
Unless it’s tied to credible U.S. diplomacy—not maximalist demands—and unless Israel halts covert attacks and assassinations and continued airstrikes (a la Lebanon and Syria), this truce will likely collapse.
Trump helped create this mess by enabling Netanyahu.
If he truly wants to stop the region from being “destroyed,” as he just said, he’ll have to restrain Netanyahu and force a ceasefire in Gaza too.
Lasting peace is impossible until Netanyahu and his war-first approach is gone for good.
2/ REMEMBER: Netanyahu explicitly said Israel’s military operation in Iran would continue “for as long as it takes” to eliminate what he called the "existential threat of Iran’s nuclear program and arsenal of ballistic missiles."
That hasn't happened! Far from it.
