Russia could play mediating role in de-escalating crisis
Giorgio Cafiero, an analyst and CEO of Gulf State Analytics, notes that Moscow has offered to play a mediating role and “it will be interesting to see if Tel Aviv and Tehran … decide to take the Kremlin up on this offer”.
But Cafiero told Al Jazeera that any potential de-escalation may be a while off.
“Right now, Iran is not interested in restraint or de-escalation … Iran is determined to send Israel, and by extension, the rest of the world, a message that sending such strikes against Iran meet very, very serious consequences,” he said.
“That is the message that Tehran is sending out right now.”
Oil markets are spooked as Iran-Israel tensions escalate
Israel’s strikes on military and nuclear sites, and Iran’s retaliation, have rocked already strained global supply chains.
As airlines suspend flights to Tel Aviv, Tehran, and other airports across the region, oil companies, shipping firms, and regulatory agencies face growing concerns that key trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz could be caught in the crossfire.
Merchant shipping is still passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but with increased caution.
Iran has previously threatened to close this critical trade route in response to Western pressure.
Even the suggestion of such a move has already sent shockwaves through global markets, and the price of oil has risen.
Situation ‘can get very ugly, very quickly’
We’ve been speaking with Ali Vaez, the Iran Project director at the International Crisis Group, about the continued escalation between Israel and Iran.
Here’s some of what he had to say:
- “The region has never been as close to the edge of a full-fledged conflagration than it is right now.”
- If tit-for-tat attacks continue, “at some point, there will be more and more casualties, which could include Americans who live in Israel”; If that happens, it will be “very hard” for the US not to get more involved.
- It is unclear how many ballistic missiles Iran has, and how long it will be able to keep up its retaliatory attacks against Israel, but “the reality is that Iran has one of the most sophisticated and largest arsenals of ballistic missiles in the region”.
- “Iran still has offensive capabilities. It still has allies in the region who remain relatively strong, like the Houthis in Yemen or the Shia militias in Iraq. So this can still get very ugly, very quickly, if it continues.”
- Israel’s attacks constitute a “significant setback for the Iranian regime, but it doesn’t mean that it would create the kind of paralysis or regime implosion that Israel is seeking”.
China ‘indirectly’ criticises Israel’s attacks on Iran, proposes mediator role
Al Jazeera’s Katrina Yu, reporting from Beijing, said China is watching the situation in both Iran and Israel closely, having warned its citizens living in both countries to take security precautions.
China’s Foreign Ministry also said it was extremely concerned about the consequences of Israel’s attack on Iran and pointed out that it does not benefit any of the parties involved, while also calling for a de-escalation in the conflict.
“It’s also indirectly criticised Israel, saying that it opposes any violation of Iran’s sovereignty, of its territory, and it’s also – interestingly – offered itself up as a possible mediator, saying that China is willing to play a constructive role in easing the situation,” Yu said.
Beijing previously mediated a successful detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, Yu said, adding that while China has relations with both Israel and Iran, it remains closer to Tehran and had signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with the country in 2016. China is also Iran’s biggest trading partner and largest customer of oil.
Ties with Israel have also become strained more recently as China has been deeply critical of its war on Gaza and continually calls for a two-state solution for Palestine, Yu added.
