A few additional observations regarding the recent strike on Russia’s strategic aviation may help clarify its scale and implications. Our team assesses the operational strength of the Russian strategic bomber fleet to be at 70 to 90 aircraft. A midpoint estimate puts the number at around 80.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 3 June 2025 at 09:17
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Based on available satellite imagery and open sources, we estimate that at least 11 bombers and one An-12 transport aircraft were destroyed, with two additional bombers likely damaged. This brings the confirmed and probable toll to between 13 and 14 aircraft.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 3 June 2025 at 09:17
Some claims suggest over 20 bombers may have been damaged or destroyed, but we have not yet seen credible visual confirmation to support those higher estimates. There have also been unverified reports of an A-50 AWACS being hit. However, we have found no evidence to substantiate these claims.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 3 June 2025 at 09:17
If we focus strictly on destroyed aircraft, the loss of 11 bombers out of an 80-plane operational fleet represents roughly 13.75% of Russia’s operational strategic bomber force.
Ukrainian strikes seem to deliberately avoided the more modern Tu-160 bombers, instead targeting the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 3 June 2025 at 09:17
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We believe this selectivity was a deliberate decision to avoid escalations by targeting key elements of Russia’s nuclear triad, while still degrading assets actively involved in missile strikes. While this operation is unlikely to quickly diminish the frequency of missile strikes against Ukraine…
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 3 June 2025 at 09:17
…as Russia typically employs 7 to 11 bombers per salvo, it does have longer-term implications.
The loss of even a portion of these asset especially ones that are almost impossible to replace reduces Russia’s capacity for long-range force projection and its overall geostrategic flexibility.
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 3 June 2025 at 09:17
In sum, this was a highly successful operation for Ukraine. While it may not bring a quick reduction in the aerial threat to Ukrainian cities, it degraded a critical segment of Russia’s force projection. At the end it might influence a potential agreement to restrict long-range strikes in the future
— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) 3 June 2025 at 09:17
