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It’s very hard to say. It doesn’t seem that third-party was looking to support DC, so Sega would’ve needed some killer 1st party titles, which—judging by Sonic Heroes, Shadow the Hedgehog, and Sonic ‘06–doesn’t sound like a very safe bet. DC would’ve sold far less than GCN regardless of if the system ran until 2005/2006, and the subsequent generation would’ve not been any kinder with Nintendo dominating the casual/family-friendly & JP market.
That all to say: Sega would’ve probably been stuck at a distant fourth place. If they stuck around until the late-2010s, however, I could definitely see a Sega system racking up some really strong figures! With all that Sega has been putting out, as well as the third-party support likely being present (assuming Sega stuck with similar hardware infrastructure as PS5/XBSXS), I could see a Sega system today burning through 40-50mil units.
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