It depends.
If the resources that went into Kinect and Kinect games had been put into a better late gen line-up, 360 sales might have been the same or at least put the XBox One in a much better spot. The blue ocean turned out to be a fickle one.
PS3 knocked it out the park at the end of its generation getting more core 360 players, not interested in Kinect, to get a PS3 alongside.
Kinect hurt XBox long term for a quick cash grab. The tech was cool, the games were not and had many issues. Kinect 2 improved the lag and precision but it was too late already and still wasn't convincing anyone playing video games without buttons had a future. The 'casuals' moved on to the next thing while Kinect had its stigma of bad games. Fable the Journey, Steel Battalion: Heavy Armor, Kinect Star Wars, etc. Dance games worked best, but Just Dance simply worked on anything, Kinect wasn't really needed.
On the other hand, without Kinect, PS Move might have had much less success and PSVR1 would perhaps not have happened. Kinect marketing did further popularize motion gaming. (for a while)
