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GTA 6, Doom, Ghost of Yotei, Monster Hunter Wilds and maybe Death Stranding 2 if it's a big step up from the first game all have shots of at least getting nominated. If Nintendo have something like a 3D Mario launching this year for Switch 2 that could get a nomination too.

I think it's going to be difficult for anything to beat GTA 6 this year though unless it's delayed or has big issues.