Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Ryuu96]

Zkuq said:

Ryuu96 said:

You can't win a war via sanctions alone, Russia's economy is doomed either way so the threat of further sanctions is hardly going to move Putin, the only thing that will is military force. Lets wait and see a few months, I can easily imagine a scenario where Trump is using these recent sanction comments to look "tough" and then turning around a few months from now and saying that Ukraine is the one being unreasonable and pulling support, that way he looks like he actually did something in terms of standing up to Russia but makes an excuse later to throw Ukraine under the bus. The threat of further sanctions is welcome but will not scare Russia out of the war.

I don't know, that would be kind of a strange twist... although maybe not for Trump. I think Russia would have to bend just enough to be actually ready for negotiations before Trump could pull support from Ukraine, and they might just do that sooner or later. I mean, Russian economy can't hold up forever, and I'm sure the Russians people also have their limits (just not where any reasonable person might have them). If I had to guess right now, I'd say Russia wants to see Trump's actual cards and perhaps give them some time, and then act accordingly.

I think his current stance could be to not look so much like a Russian puppet as accusations have been thrown at him in the past, in that sense he would threaten further sanctions towards Russia, allowing Russia to pretend to come to the table, then Trump turns his attention to Ukraine and demands they make a concession as well, when Ukraine refuses to budge on joining NATO or surrendering territory, Trump turns around and says it's Ukraine who is being unreasonable and thus pulls back support to force Ukraine to accept a shitty deal.

He already noted recently that he "understands" Russia's position on Ukraine joining NATO so I feel like that is going to be the thing he tries to demand Ukraine accept, no NATO membership. Then there's the question of territory, Trump has said both sides will have to make compromises. Now there is a scenario where perhaps Trump feels like he doesn't need Putin anymore and there is a scenario where Putin's complete refusal to negotiate pisses off Trump and hurts his ego, thus pushing him to support Ukraine further, which needs to be militarily too.

There's also the scenario where Russia pretends to be acting in good faith on negotiations and Trump is too stupid to see through it.

This isn't helping things on my feeling that Trump is going to force Ukraine to accept a bad deal.

❗️Trump warns Russia of the toughest sanctions and tariffs if it doesn’t end the war quickly. He stated that Zelensky is “not an angel” and should have prevented the war, adding that Ukraine is fighting a much larger army but has received billions in aid. Trump insists the war must end immediately.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 24 January 2025 at 07:54

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 12 hours ago