Once in office, unpredictable Trump may reinterpret Gaza ceasefire deal: Analyst
The fate of the Gaza ceasefire deal lies in the hands of incoming US President Donald Trump, whose bravado and unpredictable nature could lead to a reinterpretation of the agreement in the second and third phases.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Hassan Mneimneh, a political analyst with the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, said Israel’s central demand that Hamas disarm and disband places future phases of the ceasefire agreement at risk.
But, ultimately, Trump’s unpredictable nature will determine whether fighting resumes, Mneimneh said.
“Trump himself has said there’s no room for terrorists in the day after, and he did say he wants peace, but victory is needed for peace – an Israeli victory is needed for peace,” Mneimneh said.
“So really, these different signals indicate what we might see is a reinterpretation of the steps needed to ascend to steps two and three,” he said.
Mneimneh added that beyond the release of captives on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides, there remain serious questions such as the distribution of aid and how a permanent end to hostilities may be achieved.
Israel may take advantage of disinterested Trump to derail later phases of ceasefire: Analyst
Donald Trump may lose interest in what happens to Gaza beyond phase one of the ceasefire deal, now that the incoming president has avoided having to deal with a foreign policy crisis on the first day of his new administration, one analyst said.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Mouin Rabbani, a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said the future of the ceasefire deal remains tenuous given Trump and his administration’s priorities.
“Given that this is a staged agreement, it’s entirely possible that Washington will lose interest in pursuing this matter and in following up and ensuring that there is agreement on a second and third stage,” Rabbani told Al Jazeera. “Therefore, things could fall apart on that basis, or rather, that gives Israel an opportunity to derail an agreement that it didn’t want in the first place,” Rabbani said. “The second issue is that the second and third stages of this agreement have been identified, but not finalised,” he said.
Rabbani said that situation meant that Israel could “very easily ” use the lack of certainty in later phases to derail future negotiations and “arrange for there not to be an agreement”. “Hamas accepted this agreement already last July, and the only reason that Israel has now accepted is because of this American pressure,” he added.
“What the Trump administration has done, we don’t know the details, but it appears it involved little more than stern words of you ‘either do this or there are going to be consequences’,” Rabbani said. “I think Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recognised that it would not be in Israel’s interest to get on the wrong side of the incoming president on the day that he takes the oath of office,” he said.
Rabbani said there is currently no evidence of informal deals or agreements being made that will ensure Israel follows through on future phases of the ceasefire agreement. The driving force behind the deal was “an intense focus” by the incoming administration to ensure there would be no foreign policy crisis on the day of Trump’s inauguration.
“I suspect there hasn’t been much haggling or negotiations,” Rabbani said. “Israel was simply told what to do and accepted America’s wishes because both parties recognise how extraordinarily dependent Israel is on the United States,” he added.
‘Agent of chaos’ Trump will move on ‘if all goes to hell’ in Gaza: Analyst
Donald Trump showed himself to be “incredibly anti-Palestinian” during his first term as president and he will have little interest in overseeing the end of conflict in Gaza during the next term, an analyst said.
Omar Baddar, a Palestinian-American political analyst and former deputy director of the Arab American Institute, said Trump has historically shown little interest in following international law when it comes to Palestine.
He previously moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, supported the expansion of illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, and granted legitimacy to Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, Baddar told Al Jazeera.
“The list goes on and on,” Baddar said.
“At this point, we know that Trump is also an agent of chaos. And the amount of chaos that he’s going to create domestically in the US, he’s definitely going to be busy with the battles that are going to be happening domestically,” he said. “And at that point, whether he’s actually going to maintain an interest in a ceasefire, I think is going to be very unlikely that this is going to be high on his priority list,” he added.
“All he wants for his own ego is to basically be the president who delivered the ceasefire. To be the president who delivered the release of hostages. But, then, if all goes to hell after the news cycle has moved on, I don’t think he really minds that much.”
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