What changed PM Netanyahu’s stance over truce with Hamas?
Analysts say Netanyahu could now seek a way to use the Gaza ceasefire to his advantage, potentially by pivoting away from the far-right coalition partners he has relied on since 2022.
The deal could even pave the way for a long-sought normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia, backed by incoming US President-elect Donald Trump.
“The key is not the situation but how you play the game, and the bottom line is that [Netanyahu] is the best player of the game there is,” said Jonathan Rynhold, head of the political studies department at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv.
Anshel Pfeffer, a journalist and author of a 2018 biography of Netanyahu, questioned what the incoming US president offered the Israeli prime minister to secure a truce.
“The question is what is Netanyahu getting out of the deal beyond the hostage release and the ceasefire, and that is where we get into the Saudi question,” Pfeffer said.
It’s possible the ceasefire “could be part of something much bigger. … Trump wants a deal” between Saudi Arabia and Israel, he said.
While Netanyahu’s far-right partners have promised to oppose the ceasefire, Pfeffer said it’s unlikely any disagreements in the ruling coalition would bring him down. Still, the ceasefire will be “a moment of truth” for Netanyahu when he might try to “pivot away from the far right in the coalition to some sort of legacy-defining deal with the Saudis”.
White House spokesman says ‘confident’ ceasefire deal intact
Speaking to US network NBC, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the US government is aware of the issues that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has raised today and is “working with him and his team to iron all this out”.
“We’re going to get there,” said Kirby. “We’re confident we’ll be able to solve these last-minute differences and get it moving and that this ceasefire can take place starting Sunday.”
Gaza deal offers Iran a chance to de-escalate, analyst says. Whether it will remains "far from certain
The Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal could provide an opportunity for wider de-escalation in the Middle East, particularly if Iran uses the opportunity to bring the temperature down, a senior fellow at UK-based think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) says.
Iran – which backs Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen – has long engaged in a shadow war with Israel. Last year, Israel and Iran traded direct attacks for the first time.
“The ceasefire opens the possibility for Iran, having already lost significant strategic and hard power in the region, to reconsider its transnational proxy policy and deescalate with Israel,” said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI.
“It is far from certain that Tehran will seize the opportunity for de-escalation, despite needing it on many fronts.”
“There are several regional moving parts that will have a bearing, such as constraints on the US, Qatar and Egypt to facilitate the survival of the agreement and move beyond the impasse in the next phases,” Ozcelik said Thursday.
Ozcelik added that Houthi militants in Yemen will “now be expected to halt disruptive maritime activities in the Red Sea, something that the US, UK and allies will be watching closely.”
Over the past year, the Houthi group has been attacking shipping in the Red Sea and launching missiles at Israel, saying it will only stop once a Gaza ceasefire is reached.
“All actors will apply a wait-and-see approach during a still volatile conflict environment,” Ozcelik said. “And the risk remains that the deal could prove to be a tentative lull rather than mark the end of the war.”
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