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I think the biggest thing is they vastly overestimated how much GamePass would disrupt the traditional software market.

Its been somewhat overlooked, especially with Microsoft going third party, but I feel like Day One PC releases essentially shifted a decent amount of their player base towards Valve/Epic. PC Gamepass has been growing, but ultimately, the Xbox console is going to be the driving force behind increasing subscribers. I think they expected Game Pass value proposition alongside the Series S to siphon away users from Sony.