Official Gaza death toll likely undercounts by 41 percent, says study
An official Palestinian toll for direct deaths caused by Israel’s war on Gaza likely undercounted casualties by 41 percent in the first nine months of the war, a new academic study published in The Lancet has claimed.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions, used a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis.
The researchers assessed the death toll from Israel’s assault on Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024, estimating 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injury.
This figure is 41 percent higher than the Palestinian Health Ministry count, with the study explaining that the capacity to maintain electronic death records deteriorated as Israel’s military campaign continued.
The study said 59.1 percent of those killed were women, children and people over the age of 65. The research did not provide an estimate of how many Palestinian fighters have been killed.
As of January 9, the Palestinian Health Ministry’s death toll stands at 46,006 people.
Death toll numbers ambiguous in Gaza with health centres in ruin
There are hundreds of cases of entire families being killed in the northern part of the Gaza Strip. They end up being buried in the yards of their homes or in the streets.
Israeli forces launched a major ground incursion in early October that continues to this day. Video from the war-battered area shows people digging graves on roads or sidewalks. All of these cases have gone unreported because victims are never brought to Gaza’s besieged hospitals.
The entire healthcare system in the northern part of the Strip is out of service without any proper mechanism for recording the number of casualties in the area. Hundreds of these cases have been proven to take place since the beginning of this genocidal war.
It is increasingly difficult to keep track of mass killings during Israel’s relentless attacks.
Gaza authorities call for international help with recovering bodies, counting victims
Gaza’s Government Media Office has called “on the international community, the United Nations and other international organisations to support efforts in counting victims and recovering thousands of bodies in the Gaza Strip”.
It expressed its “deep concern” over the findings of the British study published in The Lancet journal, which said the deaths in the enclave were likely undercounted by 41 percent. The study’s death toll estimate is 64,260 while the official figure was 37,877.
“This discrepancy highlights the extent of the catastrophe inflicted by the Israeli occupation forces on civilians and civil infrastructure in the Gaza Strip,” the Media Office statement said.
“We in the Government Media Office affirm that this gap results from the existing inability to register all victims killed by the Israeli occupation across all governorates,” it said.
“This is compounded by the catastrophic humanitarian conditions and the restrictive criteria adhered to by the Palestinian Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip,” the statement added.
“Additionally, the ongoing killing, siege, targeting of medical teams, destruction of hospitals, and prevention of Civil Defence teams from operating hinder efforts to recover and bury thousands of bodies.”
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