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Conina said:

And give the Xbox 360 two or three years headstart instead of one year? Two years of "HD exclusivity" would have cemented the Xbox hardware base and hurt Sony for many years.

The Xbox 360 shipped less than 3.5 million units during the first three quarters of 2007. It was hardly setting the world on fire before Halo 3 and CoD4; if anything, it looked like it was losing steam ever since its launch.

To think it would have gone the way of the Dreamcast was a perfectly reasonable conclusion by then, especially if Sony comes about with newer and faster hardware, media, and far smaller losses from the more mature Blu-ray tech.