Given this week’s events Assad's regime is finished & it’s a race to Damascus. The Russian position in Syria, and MENA region writ large is consequently in deep trouble, because of Syria’s importance as a logistics hub for Russian operations. Short thread. 1/
— Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) 7 December 2024 at 18:54
Russian operations in Libya, Africa, and further afield heavily depend on its its ability to maintain a logistical route via Syria, bot for maritime presence, and airlift via Khmeimim. John has a good post on this: behindthefront.substack.com/p/the-role-o... 10/
— Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) 7 December 2024 at 18:54
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Russian ships deploy to Tartus on rotation. Since 2016 the base was expanded from a minor resupply point where larger surface combatants couldn’t even dock into a much larger resupply, and rearmament facility for ships and submarines. 11/
— Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) 7 December 2024 at 18:54
Khmeimim is an important lily pad base for Russian airlift into Libya, and other parts of MENA region. Libya, and other operations in Africa would be significantly affected without ready alternatives. Getting kicked out Syria will have wide reaching consequences for Moscow. 13/
— Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) 7 December 2024 at 18:54
My guess is that Moscow will see itself booted, one way another from Syria, forcing an evacuation or an agreed withdrawal. Either way, this would deal a major blow to its ability to maintain influence in the region, its perceived status as a power, and ability to support operations in MENA.
— Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) 7 December 2024 at 18:54
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 07 December 2024
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