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shavenferret on 06 December 2024
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
shavenferret said:

Even after doubling its sign-on bonus payment, the Russian army’s recruitment rate is falling. Losses may now outpace new enlistments.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/12/04/even-after-doubling-its-sign-on-bonus-payment-the-russian-army-s-recruitment-rate-is-falling-losses-may-now-outpace-new-enlistments

So at this rate, Putin will soon be forced to call in the dreaded general mobilization, knowing all too well that he swore not doing so and that Russians will hate him for it.

Worse, since Russia has effectively full employment, calling in a general mobilization would maybe fill the ranks with fresh meat - but at the same time drain the Homefront of manpower it also desperately needs to support the war effort with military hardware.

And to make the matter even worse, due to the crashing population growth post-Soviet Union, Russia would run headlong into the same problem that Zelensky faces and why he doesn't want to call in the 18-25 year old: If Russia would call in a general mobilization, Putin would effectively send the future of Russia straight into battle, and if Ukraine can hold the wave then Russia will just have depleted itself of ethnic Russians with the mobilization.

Yeah!  This war has really brought to mind how economics is known as the "dismal science".  These nations only have hard choices to make and it will hurt whichever way they choose it's just which kind of pain they want to avoid is the question.  

Keep pushing Ukraine!  If they can ramp up missile production, then important logistic/headquarters/ammo dumps/etc targets can finally start getting knocked out.  That *could* turn the tide before the lack of U.S. help (and Bradleys or whatever run out) makes Ukraine want to give up.