Trump policies are short term and short sighted.
He will push for treaties that would make him look good, but make peace at best till end of his term.
That won't have a major shift on how peaceful world is, except I do fear for one disaster scenario. If Trump pulls US supports from Ukraine and Europeans move in to compensate - France and UK discuss possibility of sending troops - Putin may be encouraged to think he can take them. Russia would in the least expand sabotage (like the Baltic Sea cable breaks by Chinese ships) or at worst invade Baltic countries, if Putin believes Trump would ignore Article 5.
Even then I don't expect a WWIII, at most double what Europe has now, but this is the worst expansion of war that I see as remotely realistic.
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